In terms of economic performance, it’s easy to see the most successful US presidents have been Truman and Eisenhower, due to the high growth and low deficit under their presidency, followed by Kennedy-Johnson, and most of all Clinton, the best in all these areas: constant growth, low inflation, very low unemployment rate, diminshing deficit.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The financial industry is stronger than it was…Yet it continues to be one of the most penalised sectors in the stock market. The recent stock market performance of the banks in the EMU has been the worst in terms of sector/región for the last 10 years.
Investors do not expect the Fed to move on rates at today’s’ meeting. There is only a slim 20% support for this view, as hopes for a strong recovery were dashed by recent disappointing data. The widely expected hike may have to wait until the Presidential Elections are over.
There are a lot of stupid comparisons in the press, which contain elements of truth taken out of context, so the reader has a false idea of reality. For example, it has been said that in the second quarter, Europe has beaten the US in terms of GDP growth. If we put things in context, this makes no sense, unless we are celebrating a race which only lasts for one quarter.
BoAML | With an abundance of stories about how things can go wrong for the US economy, we are often asked to lay out a scenario in which the data surprise to the upside. In our view, the burden rests on the labor market. If there is an increase in demand for labor, which is met by a gain in supply, we could settle on a stronger trend in job growth.
There has long been much polemic surrounding the CFA franc. Is it a symbol of France’s “exploitation and pillaging” in Africa, which has been denounced by demonstrators and many experts who analyse issues affecting this continent. Or, on the contrary, is the CFA franc a guarantee of economic stability and development, as its European and African defenders claim?
The recent uptick in long-term debt rates, with the German bund leading the way, is not only due to investors’ disappointment after the last ECB meeting. Experts highlight other factors such as the global economy’s slightly better-than-forecast performance and the expectations for a generalised round of fiscal stimuli in key economic areas. Public debt for financing this expansion would increase and this exerts upward pressure on the rate curve.
BoAML | Central banks have learned the power of global spillovers the hard way in recent years. This is particularly true for the Federal Reserve, which paused planned policy tightening after the taper tantrum in 2013 and again after the sharp US dollar appreciation in 2014 and early 2015. In both cases US financial conditions deteriorated appreciably and the Fed responded by signalling a more gradual normalization.
Hu Shuli via Caixin | China has overhauled its fiscal budgeting process several times since the late 1970s by adjusting how local and central governments share public service cost responsibilities. Now, top policymakers have released new guidelines that reflect a determination to push forward long-overdue government spending reforms.
UBS | Post 2008, there is evidence that real growth has slowed down on a trend basis. Long-term expectation s of inflation have also fallen globally. In the long run and beyond cyclical swings, earnings growth is also likely to decline on average from pre-crisis norms of 10-11% to ca. 6 -7% in Europe and the US (in our estimates).