Banc Sabadell | Aena (AENA) is continuing to struggle to reopen the compensation analysis for Covid-19, which the Civil Aviation and the Government have both denied. Now, according to the daily Cinco Dias, Aena will have asked Deloitte to prepare a report. In this, the latter estimates the revenue deficit during 2020, as a result of Covid-19, at 1.394 billion euros ( vs 1.364 billion published by the CNMC) and during 2021 at 1.088 billion euros (vs 1.6 billion in the press). So a joint figure of 2.482 billion euros (14% of the company’s capitalisation).
News with zero impact given this deficit was already included in the cash performance at the close of 2020/2021. And we do not foresee the regulator making any adjustment to the tariff in favour of Aena for this reason, neither in the current DORA nor in the next regulatory period (2027/2031). So in our valuation, we are not including any cash inflow for this claim which would have a maximum impat on our T.P of around +10%.
Aena: BUY (T.P. €166,00 )