Banco Sabadell | The Q3’22 results show a very strong recovery in activity with capacity in line with expectations (81% vs ~80% estimated). However, the big surprise comes in the shape of the strong trend in prices (RASK 8,57 vs 7,79 BS(e) and 7,08), the highest level in the history of IAG. On the costs side, there is a surprise with fuel (32% of costs) which is -6% vs revised BS(e). In any event, it should not be a surprise to the extent that the company already pre-released EBIT (pre-one offs) of 1.206 billion euros.
Net debt was up slightly at the close of the quarter at 11.058 billion euros (vs 10.979 billion in Q2’22), while liquidity remains stable at 13.488 billion euros (-12 M vs Q2’22). From our point of view, this continues to lessen, even more so, the probabilities of a capital hike which is one of the main focal points of uncertainty surrounding the stock.
As to the outlook, the company is maintaining the capacity scenario for 2022 at 78% of 2019 levels and hope that in Q1’23, 95% of capacity will be recovered vs Q1’19 (vs in line with BS (e) expectations). IAG hopes to close 2022 with an EBIT (pre one-offs) of 1.1 billion euros (vs 619 million euros consensus and 964 million BS (e)).
