Bankinter | Aena’s (AENA) fundamentals are improving, against a backdrop of solid demand, where tensions in the Middle East could even attract more tourists to Spain, and with a more favourable tariff framework. The company has proposed an annual increase of 3.8% for the period 2027–2031, although in our base case scenario we assume some reduction by the National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC) of up to 2.5% annually. As a result, the company’s operating results could grow at a rate of 5% per annum, whilst leverage should remain at moderate levels (<2x net debt/EBITDA), despite the substantial planned investments (€12.89 billion over five years). What seems excessive is to assume that tariffs will not rise over the next five years, which is what the share price currently reflects. Therefore, we recommend Buy, with a upside potential of 11% relative to our Target Price (€29.1 per share) and a dividend yield of over 4.5% per annum.
Tensions in Middle East could attract more tourists to Spain
