Norbolsa | US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, shortly before his ultimatum for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe attacks on its civilian infrastructure expired.
This change in tone follows previous warnings of a sharp escalation, highlighting the high sensitivity of the conflict to political factors and last-minute negotiations. Pakistan’s mediation, led by military chief Asim Muniry and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has been key to securing a last-minute agreement. The pact is reportedly conditional on Iran lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In this context, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicated that Tehran would cease its counterattacks and guarantee the free flow of energy provided that hostilities cease. The message from Washington, where Trump described the agreement as a ‘total and complete victory’ and opened the door to facilitating the normalisation of traffic in the area, brings potential relief to crude oil risk premiums in the short term, with prices falling by around 14% to below $100, although this is conditional on the credibility of the ceasefire.
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the geographical scope of the agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed the pause in operations against Iran, but stressed that it would not extend to the front with Lebanon. This stance differs significantly from previous statements from Pakistan suggesting a broader cessation of hostilities, which did include Lebanon.
