Coronavirus

World economy 14th April 2020

US Joblessness At 20%?

Ostrum AM | A total of 6.6mn Americans lost their jobs last week. This raises the total of unemployed persons to 10mn since mid-March. The outlook for the next few weeks is dismal. The unemployment rate will increase very rapidly to levels unseen since the 1930s great depression. March non-farm payroll data reported only 701k job losses but the survey is conducted on the week on the 12^th day of the reference month hence before the catastrophic claims numbers. April data will thus take account of job losses in the millions.

Ibex, Markets 7th April 2020

After Covid19, The Situation Will Not Be Easy For Fossil Fuel Suppliers

Alphavalue | One might wonder why equity investors bet on being long on oil last week when the Brent was reaching new lows. In fact on Tuesday, Brent prices hit 20-year lows in the $22/barrel range. It could be one of the surprising examples of how much risk can be taken when there is talk about, or hopes for, stimulus. At that point, even the strongest fundamentals tend to be ignored.

Cryptocurrencies turn ten years; 2019 could be the year of tokenization

World economy 29th March 2020

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Iwa Salami via The Conversation | Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will probably not be killed off by the COVID-19 crisis or indeed any other market event. With the growing market in crypto lending, these services look pivotally positioned to replace traditional banking services in the coming years. If more countries make similar moves to the ones I’ve highlighted above, crypto-assets could even become entrenched in the financial mainstream very soon.

Ibex, Markets 27th March 2020

Repsol Presents Its 2020 Coronavirus Resilience Plan, With Sufficient Liquidity Until 2024

In a scenario of oil prices (Brent) at $35 and Gas (Henry Hub) at $1.8, Repsol has drawn up a contingency plan to deal with the impact of COVID-19. This includes cancelling the extra share buyback for 5% of capital due to be executed in May, which, totalled 1Bn euros, but maintaining its dividend at €1 per share. The company also flags that it has sufficient liquidity to deal with this situation at least until 2024.

Spanish economy 26th March 2020

The Coronavirus Crisis Could Cost Spain Between 3.9% And 10% Of GDP

The coronavirus crisis could cost Spain 3.9% of GDP, in a mild scenario. But if the current containment and crisis measures are extended for three months, GDP could fall by up to 6 percentage points. And if they continue until summer, by almost 10. This is one of the conclusions of the report presented yesterday by Nuno Fernandes, Professor of Finance at IESE Business School.

Spanish economy 25th March 2020

Spain Has 1.1 Million People Employed In The Health Sector, Almost Twice As Many As In 2000

Over the last two decades, the Spanish health sector’s percentage of the country’s total employment has grown considerably. In 2000, the number of people working in the health sector barely represented 4% of all those employed in Spain. In 2019, however, this proportion was close to 5.7%. This data is from the Active Population Survey (EPA), which is picked up in a Funcas document. It reminds us that, despite the fact Spain’s health situation is critical at the moment, the country has never had as many people working in the sector as it does today.

Spanish economy 23rd March 2020

S&P And Moody’s Confirm Their Sovereign Ratings For Spain At A (Stable Outlook) And Baa1, Respectively

S&P has revised Spain 2020 GDP downwards from +1.5% to -1.8%, rebounding +3.1% in 2021, +1.4% in 2022 and +1.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, estimates for the unemployment rate are 14.6% in 2020 compared to 14.1% in 2019, 15.6% in 2021, 15.2% in 2022 and 15.0% in 2023. For its part, Moody’s does not expand on this information; it merely confirms its ratings and outlook.

Spanish economy 23rd March 2020

Around 500 ERTES Now Affect More Than 1 Million Workers In Spain

The rapid spread of the coronavirus in Spain is sparking a decline in activity for many companies, beyond just the shops, bars and restaurants which have been forced to close. Some giants such as SEAT, Volkswagen or Burger King have announced that they are going to launch temporary layoffs (so called ERTEs) to deal with the situation. The Spanish government calculates that the extraordinary measures already activated could affect up to one million jobs.

World economy 21st March 2020

Economic Fallout: Here Comes Congress?

“It would be a mistake to believe that anything US Congress approves will be a definitive solution for the economy, at least in the short term. As for the size that the economic aid should have, PIMCO believes that “an increase in public spending of 4% could serve to compensate for the economic damage in the short term”

Spanish economy 20th March 2020

Spain: 17,395 Infected By Coronavirus And 803 Dead. Germany, 14,481 Infected And 43 Dead. Something Doesn’t Add Up, Don’t You Think?

Spain had its first coronavirus death on February 13th, in Valencia. But the Spanish Ministry of Health did not know about it, or did not make it public – and we do not know what is worse – until three weeks later, March 3. This first data reflects well how this pandemic is being managed in Spain.

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