I. de la Torre and L. Torralba (Arcano Partners) | The economist Dornbusch says that “crises take long to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine”. The events that have affected the emerging countries this summer have proven Dornbusch was right.
From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.
Now “the waters appear to have calmed” in Italy, analysts at Intermoney, however, believe we will see more episodes of tension originating in Italy. The key moment is likely to come at the end of the summer or in the autumn. This situation should be seen as a scenario for tension rather than rupture, although contagion to other peripheral economies could be possible.
US corporate debt rose to 45% of GDP at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis that began in 2008 , the same level it reached at the height of the dot.com bubble in 2000/01
For a long time, Spain has had a “debt pending” in terms of budgetary stability. And, for the time being, the current scenario leads us to think that balancing the public finances is a difficult objective to achieve in the medium-term. Added to that problem is the high level of government debt.
At last, the Greek economy seems to be in a much more solid position. Greece once again saw positive growth rates in 2017 and it’s expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2% over the next two years. In spite of this, the financial sustainability of Greece’s public sector remains in doubt.
Intermoney | The 5 Star Movement and La Liga finally reached an agreement to govern Italy on Thursday after more than two months of political deadlock. But it is still not known who will be prime minister.
Paula Sampedro (Link Securities) |There are various fronts open on the political front during this week. Specifically, the Italian political parties La Liga (extreme rightwing) and the Movimiento Cinco Estrellas (anti-establishment) are expected to present their programme for government to the country’s president Sergio Mattarella, after reaching an agreement to form a new government in Italy.
Telefonica posted a 7.4% rise in net profit in the first quarter of 2018 to 837 million euros from a year earlier. The figure beat FactSet’s analysts consensus for net profit of 800 million euros. But revenues fell 7.2% to 12.19 billion euros, as currency pressures offset improvements in the group’s home market.
The reasons behind the cooling off in activity on both sides of the Atlantic during Q1’18 are more important than the cooling off itself. In fact, the characteristics of these reasons are those which allow us to have confidence about the improvement in activity in the spring in both the US and Europe.