JP Marín Arrese | The markets are betting on Taco, the acronym coined by Robert Armstrong to assert that ‘Trump always chickens out’. It appears to work for the time being, at least as far as trade is concerned. Upon entering office, Trump threatened to wage an attrition war on Canada and Mexico, leading them to utter misery. Later on, he scaled back such bellicose plans to mere increases in…
Bankinter | A document/letter from the US government has been leaked, inviting all countries to submit their “best tariff offer” today, June 4, to complete the deals as soon as possible. So far, the US has only concluded a deal with the UK. Then, according to the letter (it is not known which countries have received it), the US government will respond within days with the tariff measures it believes…
Banca March | In less than 100 days, Trump has imposed the highest tariffs of the last 100 years, increasing the average rate from 2.5% to 24%. Last Wednesday night, he announced a base global tariff of 10%, which came into effect on Saturday. For those countries with a trade deficit, a higher rate applies, which will begin next April 9th. This is the case for the EU, which from…
Banca March | On Wednesday, the US president signed an order instructing the Department of Commerce to carry out an investigation under Section 232. This same mechanism was used in 2017 to establish tariffs on steel and aluminium after a year-long analysis and, therefore, it could require a similar period in this case. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said the action will also look at products containing copper and stressed…
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has announced that he has reached an agreement with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to begin “negotiations immediately” with the aim of ending the war in Ukraine. In the hours following the announcement, members of the Trump Administration have outlined some of the conditions for this agreement, which would involve overlooking Ukraine’s claims on Crimea, and even on the Russian-speaking territories already…
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | The sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China do not stem out of protectionism. In Trump’s mind they simply amount to massive destruction weapons aimed at waging wars without casualties. He aims to submit and bully every nation on earth be it a friend or a foe. For all we know that difference doesn’t really matter. The longstanding close alliance between the US and its…
Norbolsa | The US president again spoke of his intention to set global tariffs to protect the country’s economy, stating that he is not going to do so immediately, but that he sees the tariff level clearly above 2.5%. This level has been put in the mouth of Treasury Secretary Bessent, although Trump does not believe that this is what Bessent supports and he himself sees a clearly higher tariff….
Alicia Gª Herrero (Natixis) | On the eve of Donald Trump’s election win in November, the world economy was already under stress with a slowing Europe, a grinding war in Ukraine and a stagnant Chinese economy. Yet there was hope that as central banks started to bring high inflation under control, lower interest rates would buoy economic activity and the world economy in 2025. But Trump’s victory is taking the…
Banca March: Trump has offered new clues on tariffs: he promises to increase them by 10% on all goods imported from China, and by 25% on products from Mexico and Canada. The main rationale for the tariff hike centres on combating the threat posed by fentanyl. In the case of China, the future president accused the country of not taking sufficient measures to stop the flow of illicit drugs crossing…
Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | You shouldn’t be too concerned about Donald Trump’s impressive electoral performance unless you rank among undocumented immigrants within the U.S. borders. Even so, despite his upbeat rhetoric, Trump proved less effective in enforcing deportation orders during his previous term than Obama—only a few thousand compared to nearly one million per year under his Democratic counterpart. Foreign observers are often bewildered by the broad public support Trump…