A stock market catastrophe has been announced if Donald Trump won. However, after the intitial shock, most of European financial places, except Ibex, have closed, upwards. Despite Mr. Trump is a political newcomer we may not understimate his capacity of turning his latest endeavor into a success.
Natixis AM | The two US presidential contenders offer very different programs, and often vastly diverging, solutions. The combination of both would have a number of somewhat contradictory effects that would affect all US citizens.
Deutsche AM | Should investors care about political campaigns? As we argued in the CIO View Special introducing our 2016 U.S. elections watch, it is easy to get carried away by rash campaign promises in the ups and downs of 24-hour news cycles
AXA IM | Markets have reacted to his trade policy proposals, but implications are more far-reaching. A key macroeconomic difference between Clinton and Trump victories is the short-term cyclical outlook, with a more forceful fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency. This would imply Clinton win (baseline) stronger GDP growth, steeper Fed tightening, a stronger dollar and higher US treasury yields.
The Spanish banking sector earned 28% less in the first six months of the year, it has profitability problems and has seen almost half of its stock market value wiped off in the last two years. But there are two indicators which inspire optimism in the medium-term: bad loans continue to fall and there has been a strong rise in consumer credit as well as in lending to non-property companies.
Yesterday Spaniards voted again six months after the last general elections on proposals which had changed very little; the only relevant novelty was the integration of Izquierda Unida (IU) and Podemos which in the end turned out to be irrelevant. The new/old left has not gained anything obtaining the same number of seats and votes as in December, when IU ran on its own.
In the last few years, Spain has halved its deficit and emerged from a recession and the threat of a bailout which could have pulled all the eurozone down with it. Furthermore, it is now one of the countries with the highest growth – when the rest of the eurozone is still dragging its feet eight years after the start of the crisis – and unemployment is trending lower. But while caretaker Economy Minister Luis de Guindos keeps repeating Spain may not be sanctioned for non-compliance with its deficit target, everything indicates this will happen at the beginning of July.
The fourth corner of Spain’s new political chessboard is called “Ciudadanos,” a social movement born in Catalonia 10 years ago and fostered by Catalan independence. Their slogans are: liberty, equality, laicism, bilingualism, Constitution. They elected Albert Rivera, a young lawyer from Barcelona, as their leader in a jam-packed meeting held in that city’s Tivoli theatre in July 2006.
In January 2014, dozens of people got together in the Teatro del Barrio in Lavapies, (in the centre of Madrid), to form a political party to participate in the European Parliament elections to be held in May of that year. They needed 50,000 signatures to formalise their candidacy. Within in few days, they had the signatures and the embrio of what is now (920 days later) PODEMOS was born
The PSOE party, with 137 years of history, has already had four leaders so far this century, none of whom have consolidated their position. That said, Rodriguez Zapatero succeeded in heading up two relative majority governments and two minority administrations between 2004 and 2012.