elections

Congreso Diputados

Spain: On the verge of new round of elections

Fernando G. Urbaneja | One of the values of Spain’s democracy over the last forty years has been left behind following the general elections: namely, political stability. Now the Spanish political scenario resembles more that of Belgium than Germany. The results obtained on December 20th have disappointed all parties’ expectations for putting together a parliamentary model, leaving all the hipotheses on how to form a stable government in the dark.


Rajoy20D TC

Spain’s Elections: Like Portugal’s, But Worse

Many people feared that the outcome of the December 20 elections in Spain would be difficult to manage. But the final situation is much worse than expected. As soon as the recount began after the voting, the conservatives of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) lost their hopes of forming a majority government with Citizens (Ciudadanos). Spain is now, undeniably, facing a period of difficult coalition-building after yesterday’s elections. And this is a very worrisome situation for the country as uncertainty is likely to increase, affecting the mood of investors and companies.



EU US2

US-Europe Desynchronised Cycles

The major economies are now characterised by desynchronised economic cycles, with divergent policy regimes. This complicates the equity investment decision. Europe may be a relative winner, but too much of the globe is seeing financial conditions tighten, against lacklustre growth, to be optimistic on directional trends. We see downside risk through the opening months of 2016. The European economy is moving in the right direction and further ECB action promises…


España Portugal

Spain Calls Elections With One Eye On Portugal

Fernando Barciela | Passos Coelho won the elections in Portugal with 38.6% of the vote, but lost his majority in parliament. Even though he has been tasked with forming a new government, Portuguese left parties have adopted a pragmatic approach which makes an agreement between the Socialist Party, Communist Party and Bloco de Esquerda increasingly likely. For the time being, they have already appointed Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, a socialist, as the President of the parliament.

 


PedroPassosCoelhoTC1

Portugal: Conservative Coalition Likely To Stay In Power (And Ensure Solvency)

BARCLAYS | The results of the general election in Portugal came in broadly in line with recent polls: the PSD/CDS conservative coalition, currently in government, won again with 38,5% of the vote, but it fell short of an absolute majority of seats in parliament. Political instability could potentially also result in early elections after one year.



Spanish-debt

Is it Time To Buy Spanish Bonds?

UBS | Pro-independence parties in Catalonia have won a majority of seats – but not of the total of votes cast. As a result, we would advise investors to remain cautious about buying Spanish sovereign debt until some clarity emerges over the next steps of the new regional government.



Alexis Tsipras

Tsipras is at his strongest, but for how long?

ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | Working out how Alexis Tsipras went from anti-austerity crusader to comfortably winning an election while promising to implement the third bailout, and in the process turning a resounding “No” in the July referendum to a humiliating “Yes” a week later, is something that political scientists will study for years to come.