By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | Spain’s 2012 budget brings a contraction in public spending of €18 billion and an increase in taxes of €9 billion, both items totaling €27 billion, which would put central government deficit at 3.5%. To reach the pursued 5.3%, the rest of the effort corresponds to the autonomous regional governments, not exactly the most successful part of the public administration in matters regarding austerity. In addition,…
By Juan Pedro Marín Arrese, in Madrid | The Spanish government will unveil today its budget bill for 2012. In the good old days, analysts and observers bent over its pages to find the clues for public sector priorities in the year. Nowadays you can dispose of such a demanding task. Brussels has unravelled its complexity, reducing the whole exercise to the simplistic aim to meet, no matter how, the deficit…
MADRID | In a note to investors, Morgan Stanley analysts let go a few words from the bright side of their view on some of the euro zone countries that have endured the worst part of an altogether bumpy week. And here at The Corner, we cannot help but spread the love. Experts at Morgan Stanley maintain their estimates for the general GDP of the European Union, which points at…
On March 29 at midday, while those joining the nation-wide protest in Madrid celebrated that a major store like Cortefiel had begun to close its doors, electricity demand recorded an almost imperceptible 1.5pc shorter fall that the 17.5% drop caused by the last general strike seen in the country, back in September. Having it had no discernible impact then, it seems rather logical to assume that this one will not leave any…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | In this post of economistsview, by Economics professor Mark Thoma, there is a number of charts of several countries and their evolution post-financial crisis. The aim is to probe whether such crises leave temporary or permanent effects. Here I select the one about Spain, where we can see its GDP. In mid-1973, the first oil crisis came in and Spain’s GDP sort of missed its natural path, which never regained. Well, this is old news, many would say: during the…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | There is talk lately in the euro area about the capacity of our firewall, about what sort of volume it should reach in order to frighten the bond markets. This firewall is, of course, the European Financial Stability Facility, the current bailout fund to be replaced in 2013 by the European Stability Mechanism. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has surprised everyone by saying she is willing to…
LONDON | Morningstar Europe reported Tuesday that February update showed net positive inflows, with investors adding more than €15 billion in new assets to long-term European-domiciled funds. Fixed-income funds attracted the vast majority of investor cash, with some €12.5 billion in inflows, the asset class’ highest inflow figure since August 2010. Equity funds saw a modest outflow of investor capital, while money market funds lost €13 billion. Morningstar research said that funds focused…
LONDON | Investment professionals in the UK favour a more pleasant global economic outlook than in previous quarters, although the sector still remains cautious. The results from the latest Barings Investment Barometer showed Monday an increase in optimism, with concerns over the risk of a double dip recession reduced by almost two-thirds and number of advisers citing it as a major global macroeconomic challenge at just 10%, down from 28% in Q4…
By Juan Pedro Marín Arrese, in Madrid | Once again Spain is riding the storm. The sharp reduction witnessed in risk premium over the last months is vanishing. A sharp budget deficit coupled with gloomy growth prospects and soaring unemployment rates are melting confidence down. Claims on a rather subdued debt position fail to impress markets. Fear that financial situation might end up in a plight is deeply ingrained. Worries…
Another week left behind us and another wave of alarms about euro zone banks being de facto rescued by the European Central Bank’s long-term liquidity operations or expecting European Financial Stability Fund capital injections. Sí, Spain and its financial sector were back in the headlines, somehow accompanied by Portugal and Italy in a variety of doom-and-gloom combinations, with what some in Madrid see as self-fulfilling forecasts. At The Corner we say shooting the…