Crédito y Caución expects the Russian invasion of Ukraine to cut Eurozone GDP growth by one percentage point to 2.9% in 2022, due to supply chain disruption, higher commodity prices and the adverse impact on business and consumer confidence. This impact assessment, subject to a high level of uncertainty, is based on two assumptions: that the conflict will not continue beyond 2022 and that sanctions will be strengthened but not…
Bank Of America Global Research | We lower our Euro area growth forecast to 0.6% for 2020 (-40bp), on the back of lower foreign demand (global growth downgraded to 2.8%, from 3.1%), supply chain disruptions and at least temporarily lower domestic demand from local virus hot-spots. We keep our 2021 forecast unchanged at 1.1%, assuming a permanent loss in activity. Euro area growth is expected be close to zero in 1H20 (with negative quarters in Italy and Germany part of our base case).
Low growth below the 2% threshold coupled with below-target inflation has led our macros to believe that the ECB is taking extra stimulus for granted. This would mean the return of the centra banks’ asset repurchase program, experts at Morgan Stanley point out..
Jean-Christophe Delfim (Edmond de Rothschild ) | Economic growth in the Eurozone was 1.9% in 2018. However, in the last quarter a slowdown was observed to 1.2% yoy, due to the negative contribution of the trade balance (-0.4 pp), as a consequence of the sharp deceleration in exports provoked by international trade disputes.
After the surprise increase in GDP in the US in Q119, we have learnt that, according to the preliminary data by Eurostat, the Eurozone economy grew 0.4% in the first three months of the year, doubling the growth rate of 0.2% registered in the fourth quarter of last year, while in the EU as a whole GDP grew 0.5% compared to 0.3% in the previous quarter.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.
BS Markets | The growth of the Eurozone economy continued in August, although “at a slower rhythm tan in the last 18 months”. Moreover, companies´expectations of future growth have fallen to the lowest level in almost two years, according to the data of the PMI study by consultant Markit.
The latest batch of economic growth numbers corroborate a picture which we started to see last year, namely that the extent of the Eurozone recovery is widening. Germany is no longer the sole growth driver. Countries like Spain are catching up.
UBS | Tracking Europe’s resilience In this report, we aim to shed light on the question we have been asked most frequently in recent weeks: “Can Europe hold up when problems elsewhere are getting worse?” So far, the Eurozone has held up respectably, which we attribute to the fact that European growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, not exports. We believe this should also provide Europe with decent resilience going forward.
LONDON | UBS | How would China’s fallout affect Europe’s economic growth?