The CDU falls by 8.2 points in Berlin and nearly eight in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it is reduced to 4.9% and obtains the worst regional result in its history. By failing to clear the electoral threshold, this will mark the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic that it is left out of a regional parliament. Alice Weidel’s prophecy is beginning to come true. Following the victory of…
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a landslide victory in Sunday’s regional elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8% of the vote, more than double its result in 2021. Shortly after the first exit polls were released, party leader Ulrich Siegmund declared the result a “clear” mandate for AfD to govern. However, AfD fell short of an absolute majority, securing 39 out of 83 seats in the regional…
Recent growth figures, leading indicators and signals from the financial markets suggest that the German economy is performing better than the prevailing sentiment would suggest. Analysis by DWS Public perception suggests that the German economy remains marked by the crises of recent years. The energy crisis, the inflationary shock and the prolonged weakness of the industrial sector have weighed heavily on confidence. However, the latest data paint a more encouraging…
Analysis by Morgan Stanley Jens Eisenschmidt (European macro analyst) summarises the key takeaways from a trip to Berlin with policymakers and experts in economic and defence policy. The main message points to an acceleration of Germany’s reform agenda before the summer, with the focus on pensions, the labour market, defence and public investment. Although implementation will remain gradual, the authorities are seeking to send a clearer signal of their commitment…
Bankinter | The ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey surprises on the downside in April and stands at its lowest level since December 2022. The ZEW survey shows a sharper-than-expected decline and falls into negative territory for the second consecutive month. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The sharp fall reflects concerns about economic growth and the impact on energy prices arising from the US-Iran conflict. The figure is even weaker than that recorded…
Singular Bank | In April, the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany fell significantly to -28.0 points (against -24.8 points in March), exceeding the decline projected by the consensus of analysts (-27.3). This development is explained by rising uncertainty and inflation expectations in the face of surging energy and other commodity prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The most notable change was the sharp rise in price…
Bankinter | German consumer confidence fell to -28.0 points in April, compared with an expected -27.3 and a previous reading of -24.8 (revised from -24.7). Bankinter analysis team’s view: Concerns over the conflict in the Middle East (and its impact on prices), coupled with the loss of momentum in the German economy and weak GDP growth, are taking their toll on consumer confidence. Current levels represent the lowest confidence rating…
Bankinter | The ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey came in worse than expected in March, reaching its lowest level since April 2025. Expectations fell to negative 0.5 points (compared to the expected 39.2 and the previous 58.3), whilst the Current Situation improved to negative 62.9 (compared to negative 68.0 and the previous 65.9). Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative reading. The survey, which polls around 350 analysts and investors on expectations and…
Singular Bank | According to Destatis, in January, German goods exports fell by 2.3% compared to the previous month (against an increase of 3.9% in December), standing at €130.5 billion. Meanwhile, imports of goods recorded a notable drop of 5.9% month-on-month (against an increase of 1.3% in December) to a total of €109.2 billion. Given this development, Germany’s trade surplus increased to €21.2 billion (against €17.4 billion in December), exceeding…
Bankinter | The ZEW economic sentiment survey showed somewhat mixed data in February. Expectations fell to 58.3 from 59.6 (against 65.2 expected), while the current situation improved in line with expectations to -65.9 from -72.7. The overall indicator remains stable, signalling that the German economy is entering a still fragile recovery phase. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The largest economy in the European bloc continues to face structural challenges, especially in…