Germany’s external trade figures are an insult for the EU and the euro- it reaches the incredible figure of 300 billion euros, or 9% of GDP. It doesn’t look like the US would be too unhappy about getting rid of the single currency, with the help of Le Pen and others.
Jens Bastian via Macropolis | As various countries in the European Union prepare for watershed elections in the course of 2017, analysts at www.macropolis.gr will be discussing the implications of these elections and the issues most likely to impact the electoral agendas. We start off with a look at Germany and its strong bilateral (economic) ties with Russia.
“What is clear is that Greece cannot pay its debt and will never pay it. There needs to be an acquittance. And European legislation does not allow for waivering of debt. What they are going to do now, and it should have been done seven years ago, is to modify the conditions in such a way that the debt will be practically waivered,” says Spanish economist Fernando Eguidazu, as he leaves his Foreign Office post of Secretary of State for the European Union.
Germany’s enormous trade surplus is causing resentment throughout the rest of Europe, which accounts for a little over half of the annual surplus of more than €263.1 billion. Brussels and the IMF believe there is room to raise salaries and, above all, for a substantial increase in public investment.
“In principal, the euro is a good idea. The aim is to create a big economic space without any monetary barriers, like the US. But a common space implies that member states are prepared to take each other into consideration as far as their economic, financial and wage policies are concerned,” says Peter Bofinger, one of the five ‘wise men’ who make up the German Council of Economic Experts.
Spanish midcap CAF has won a €51.3 million contract in Germany to supply 9 three-car light rail vehicles for the Schönbuchbahn and their maintenance over 19 years, with the option to request up to an additional 19 trains. The contract will strengthen CAF’s position and reputation in a key strategic market niche.
The recent uptick in long-term debt rates, with the German bund leading the way, is not only due to investors’ disappointment after the last ECB meeting. Experts highlight other factors such as the global economy’s slightly better-than-forecast performance and the expectations for a generalised round of fiscal stimuli in key economic areas. Public debt for financing this expansion would increase and this exerts upward pressure on the rate curve.
I can tell you that the most eminent economists in Spain have continued to be wrong-footed since before the crisis. They are still clamouring for debt reduction, for a return to austerity, when what is slowly killing Europe is precisely that, the austerity spreading from Germany.
Recent surveys in both Germany and France indicate the perception on the part of companies that there will not be the necessary stimuli for economic activity to fuel an acceleration in the economic momentum.
The aversion to risk has reached such a point that the German 10-year government bond yield has moved into negative territory for the first time in its history. The bund is one of the most sought after safe-haven assets, which has caused its yield to plummet to -0.02%. The only advantage of negative interest rates is that they might force Germans to reconsider their investment habits.