Spain's tourism

Spain’s Tourism-Related GDP To Rise Near 3% Between 2018-19, Outperforming The Country’s Economy

Spain has taken advantage of the global rise in tourism, becoming the second most visited country in the world after France. Close to 82 M tourists visited Spain in 2018, a level similar to 2017. CaixaBank expect the industry will be able to keep its number of international tourists at an all-time high in 2019. The evidence points to the sector posting GDP growth rates of around 2.6% in 2019, outperforming 2.1% of the economy as a whole, but below the growth recorded in the past few years.

lifebuoy water

Unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis

Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?

oil futures

What If Oil Goes To $100?

Brent oil prices are up more than 30% this year and have reached levels last seen in 2014. BoAML’s team on Commodities have revised up their forecasts; they now expect Brent to peak at $95/bbl by the end of 2Q 2019. They also consider the impact on global growth of an even larger and more sustained oil spike. Specifically discuss the factors that could drive oil prices to $100/bbl, and hash out the winners and losers.

inflacion euro engranaje eurozona.384744 960 720

The word of the IMF: a more unified euro area

The IMF is forecasting global growth of over 3.9% in 2018. For the Eurozone, the forecast is for growth of 2.2%. The fifth year of economic expansion, confirming sustained and diversified growth. And the Washington-based organisation is calling for greater integration in the euro area.

Eurozone inflation

Eurozone Inflation: With Just A Very Little Help From My Friends

Yes, inflation is a global phenomenon, and inflation moving higher elsewhere will help Euro area inflation. According to BoAML, while the global backdrop will be helping, it will not move the needle enough to sustain inflation beyond the mid-year hump. Analysts think that a gradual improvement in the global output gap will generate a cumulative increase of 5bps in Euro area core inflation.

change direction

Something Is Changing

J.L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | It’s still early days yet to affirm that the uptick in medium and long-term interest rates really reflects a change in trend. But it’s true that the central banks in the main developed countries are sending ever more clear signals about the limits of continuing to increase expansionary monetary policy.

oil pricess

Oil Price and Inflation – Rupture

Natixis AM | Currently, the most important graph is the price of oil. Last week, the oil price was was above its level of August 2015. The oil price has started to fall at mid-2014. Since this moment, the oil price was always below the level it had one year before. This has changed last week. It’s the first time since 2014 that we see such a crossing.