By Morgan Stanley According to Morgan Stanley, “Liquidity is slowing and poses a short-term risk. Although the Fed (USD 40bn/month through the RMP programme), the Treasury (USD 125bn in buybacks) and the reduction in capital requirements for banks (USD 200bn) have significantly boosted liquidity in Q1 … this momentum is slowing … with the RMP being reduced to USD 10bn/month and Treasury buybacks moderating. This, coupled with China also aggressively…

By José Ramón Díez Now that the three months of conflict in the Middle East are behind us, the effects of the supply shock caused by rising energy prices will gradually become apparent in the inflation and growth data. The combination of uncertainty and resilience that has characterised the global economy’s performance in recent times creates a fragile balance, particularly whilst geopolitical risk remains at very high levels. This situation…

By Martin Wolburg Just as signs of a recovery in economic activity were beginning to emerge, the conflict with Iran has started to weigh on the eurozone economy. Confidence indicators deteriorated significantly in April: the composite PMI fell below the expansion threshold to 48.6, and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Rising energy prices are eroding real incomes, and inflation accelerated from 1.9%…