international

strategic plan

The five threats to the global economy (and Spanish exports), according to Cesce

Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team Based on strategic realism, not pessimistic prophecy, and with the aim of providing Spanish companies with a tool to better understand the events that are shaking up the geopolitical, economic and commercial landscape, Cesce’s Country Risk Unit has produced a new edition of its International Outlook report, the eleventh. “Our country’s business community cannot be a mere spectator in a scenario such as the current…


fed edificio

Fed’s new favourite inflation indicator: does it measure better or less?

The new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appears to favour giving greater weight to the Trimmed Mean PCE at the expense of the traditional Core PCE, which has been the benchmark indicator to date. The distinction is not insignificant. Whilst the Core PCE systematically excludes food and energy, the Trimmed Mean discards components with the most extreme price fluctuations, regardless of their category. A more surgical approach, in…


oil demand

Crude oil risk premium set to persist for months, if not longer

By Libby Cantrill President Donald Trump is in the French Alps this week to attend the annual G7 leaders’ summit, where one of the main focal points will be the recent memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran. Although the details of the agreement have not yet been made public, it reflects a fragile truce – one that is politically welcome for Trump, whose approval ratings have…


dollars

Liquidity is slowing, posing a short-term risk

By Morgan Stanley According to Morgan Stanley, “Liquidity is slowing and poses a short-term risk. Although the Fed (USD 40bn/month through the RMP programme), the Treasury (USD 125bn in buybacks) and the reduction in capital requirements for banks (USD 200bn) have significantly boosted liquidity in Q1 … this momentum is slowing … with the RMP being reduced to USD 10bn/month and Treasury buybacks moderating. This, coupled with China also aggressively…


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Uncertainty and resilience as summer approaches

By José Ramón Díez Now that the three months of conflict in the Middle East are behind us, the effects of the supply shock caused by rising energy prices will gradually become apparent in the inflation and growth data. The combination of uncertainty and resilience that has characterised the global economy’s performance in recent times creates a fragile balance, particularly whilst geopolitical risk remains at very high levels. This situation…


No Picture

US inflation figures for May to set tone for session: headline rate expected to rise from 3.8% to 4.2%, core from 2.8% to 2.9%

Report by Bankinter The US has bombed Iranian air defences near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is responding with attacks in various parts of the Middle East. Although these attacks appear to have been successfully intercepted, they are weighing on stock markets: Japan (down 2%); South Korea (down 6.5%); NY futures (down 0.2%)… However, what will really determine the direction of today’s session is US inflation (14:30) for May….


China tecnologia

AI drives China’s trade surplus to $105.43 billion annually in May

Report by Renta 4 Flat opening on European markets (Eurostoxx futures down 0.1%, S&P futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%) and a strong rebound in Asia (Japan’s Nikkei 2%, South Korea’s Kospi 8%) Yesterday, once again, and following the overnight escalation in the Middle East conflict, with crossfire between Israel and Iran and Hezbollah’s admission of having taken part in the attack on Israel (whilst banning Israeli shipping in…


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Three months since start of Iran war: Global GDP set to grow 3.1% in 2026, Eurozone and Asian economies to bear brunt of adjustment

This Thursday marks three months since the start of the Iran war, whilst peace negotiations continue – negotiations that do not appear to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues to take its toll on the global economy. In fact, Scope Ratings forecasts that “the price of oil will average around $100 per barrel in 2026 and that, from then on, it will fall only gradually, remaining in 2027…


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54% of banking jobs have high potential for automation

The ‘Report on the Impact of AI on the Employment Structure 2026–2030’ produced by GenAiA (Generative AI Association) highlights how 54% of banking jobs have high potential for automation according to Citigroup, and how AI systems already outperform humans in legal and medical tasks. Analysis by Editorial Board According to Layoffs.fyi, the 1.17 million job cuts recorded in 2025 — the highest figure since 2020 — represent only the visible…


European fiscal stimuli

Brussels revises 2026 growth forecast from 1.2% down to 0.9%: region’s three largest economies to bear heaviest burden

Report by Link Securities The European Commission (EC), in its Spring Economic Report 2026, has revised downwards its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone, citing inflationary pressures arising from the conflict in the Middle East. Thus, the EC has cut its growth forecast for the EU economy for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%, and for the Eurozone economy to 0.9% from…