Everyone seems to agree that salaries need to be increased in order to activate and maintain economic growth. That said, the differences between trade unions and businessmen is abysmal. And even though Spain’s economy may be growing at 3.1% in 2016, the country’s average wage has barely risen by 232 euros over the last 15 years.
The figures from the Q2’16 Labour Costs Survey for Spain confirmed that salaries are stagnating. Corporate profit margins in the Spanish economy has been dependent on wage contention, but Afi’s analysts remember that they don’t just depend on wage developments. The trend in productivity and prices is also important.
According to forecasts from The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Spain’s labour market will be amongst the top performers in the “Club of the rich countries,” registering the biggest advance in terms of employment in 2016 and overcoming the negative trend seen during the crisis. The international institution warns that a new recession could take Spain by surprise without having recovered all the jobs lost in the crisis.
BARCLAYS | 2015 was a surprisingly strong year for the Spanish labour market. Social security affiliations increased by 533k while the number of unemployed fell by 354k, according to figures released by the Ministry of Employment. December delivered another sizeable drop of 55.8k in registered unemployment and an increase of 85.3k in social security affiliations relative to November.
BARCLAYS | Spain has undergone considerable structural changes over the past four years. Stronger banks, more competitive firms and a labour market in recovery mode all support a brighter outlook.Ahead of the 20 December general election, we review the near- and medium-term growth and evaluate progress in the labour market, the private- and public-sector deleveraging process and the country’s international competitiveness.
Miguel Navascués | Junk labour contracts in Spain were created by the former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe González in 1984. At that time, González fought against the trade unions to introduce the temporary work contract. This proved to be of no use, as unemployment had increased to about 23% by the end of his term in office in 1993.
Fernando Barciela | Spanish unemployment fell again in November, reversing a three-month upward trend. Last month, 27,000 fewer people were registered as jobless than in October, taking the total number of unemployed to 4.15 million. This is good news, given that at the peak of Spain’s economic crisis, the jobless rate reached a record 26.9%. There has also been a rise in Social Security affiliations, which increased from 16.3% in 2013 to 17.2% in October 2015.
Popular chairman Angel Ron’s proposal to raise salaries in line with productivity in order to speed up the consolidation of economic growth is clearly at least worthy of a discussion. In the short-term, it would have repercussions not only on corporate profits but also on improving confidence, the recovery in consumption, the increase in production and job creation.
Experts are forecasting an unemployment rate of 15% in 2018, when it is estimated that Spain’s economy will have reached its GDP growth potential, so that figure could represent its structural jobless rate. This decline in the unemployment rate, the starting point of which was 26% at the lowest point in the economic cycle, is substantial. But it will still be high compared with other eurozone countries.