James Alexander | Not quite the line you will see across most of the market or amongst so-called monetarist economists. In fact, implied by actual nominal growth and expectations for nominal growth monetary policy is too tight. Nominal GDP growth is running at 3.7% YoY and falling, while the best measure of inflation around, the implied GDP deflator is running just below 2%.
The Bank of England announced it will cut rates for the first time in 7 years, to lowest level ever (0.25%), and expands QE by £60bn (including corp) in an attempt to stimulate the economy.
BofAML | BoE’s decision to hold rates looks like a policy mistake. But one they can rectify quickly, at their August 4 meeting. We expect a 25bp rate cut, credit easing and potentially a QE salvo. We expect slightly less than we thought before yesterday’s meeting. A properly combined fiscal and monetary push seems unlikely: a fiscal stimulus will take longer to design, and may be limited given budget constraints.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The economic cycle goes up and down. But after a terrible crash as the one we have suffered, following a crazy boom, amid staggering losses of capital and jobs, you would be deluded to believe that the economy will fix itself.