Morgan Stanley | Following expected strength during the summer, our analyst Martijn Rats believes that the market will return to surplus figures and that prices will continue to weaken in 2H25 to $60/bbl. Large inventories have been built up during 1H25, but only 10% of these are in OECD commercial centres. Therefore, the expert expects that throughout the summer, the price will remain stable in the face of a more…
Bankinter: Saudi Arabia prepares to increase oil production. Thus abandoning its objective of placing Brent at ~$100/barr. An increase in production means taking a decision that is the opposite of the measures that OPEC+ was applying. For reference, it is currently cutting 5.86M barrels of oil per day (bpd), which corresponds to around 5.7% of world oil demand. Within the aforementioned cuts, 3.66M bpd will be extended until the end…
François Rimeu (La Française AM) | The OPEC meeting resulted in maintaining the oil production cuts, as expected by the markets. Beyond this decision, investors were reassured by the possibility of these production cuts decreasing in the fall. Coupled with disappointing U.S. growth figures, this meeting had a significant impact on crude oil, which has dropped by 8% since the end of April. Again, this decline seems to be more…
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Zezas (Head of US Policy) discusses the potential implications of an environment of geopolitical uncertainty, and where there is the potential for more countries to become involved in the recent open conflict in the Middle East. Although he acknowledges that there may be further consequences that are very difficult to predict, he highlights three conclusions where conviction is highest: 1.- Increased spending on Security => European and…
Norbolsa| Brent oil prices remain at their highest levels in recent weeks, supported by expectations of lower US rates, further production cuts by OPEC+, following the reductions already announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia, and hopes for a recovery in demand in China.
Norbolsa| Brent continues to rise this week to over $86/B, at the same time that US oil inventory data fell by 15.4 million barrels (1.37 million expected), according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures (official data due out today), marking the largest drop in crude inventories since 1982. Oil prices are expected to rise further in the coming months following Saudi Arabia’s reduction of 1m/b per day from July.
Fuel prices give no respite. The 20 cents per litre rebate that has been in force since 1 April has partially relieved the pockets of millions of Spanish drivers. But diesel and petrol prices continue to rise at Spanish service stations. Diesel, in fact, has broken a new record this week, reaching 1.872 euros per litre on average, surpassing the price of petrol for the fifth consecutive week. This is…
Portocolom | Oil rose to the highest level in more than six years in New York (78 USD/bl) after the OPEC meeting failed to agree on a production increase. The United Arab Emirates rejected a proposed eight-month extension of production limits. The most immediate effect of the rupture is that OPEC and its allies will not increase production by August and this will deprive the global economy of vital additional…
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | One of the most exciting stories of the world economy in 2002 is the oil price collapse. David Fyfe, chief economist of one of the world’s largest suppliers of raw materials’ prices, Argus, is aware that the oil market is not going to be the same after this collapse in demand. It will take years for prices to recover – if they do – and US production will be lower.
OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to extend the cut in oil production until July 31. Mexico has not signed up to the new agreement. The return of 2 million barrels of crude oil to the daily supply will be postponed until that date. In addition, it was determined that Iraq and Nigeria, which have so far failed to comply with the agreed production cuts, will carry out an additional reduction in July.