Continuing the negative trend already observed in 2020, when this type of asset depreciated by 3.7%, housing prices could fall 5% in 2021. On the other hand, a certain recovery in the volume of sales and purchases is expected this year, with up to 480,000 transactions compared to 450,000 last year; in 2019, almost 570,000 property sales and purchases were recorded.
CaixaBank Research | The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) for the Spanish economy could be an important catalyst for the real estate sector. With the help of European funds, the government plans to recondition half a million homes between 2021 and 2023, with the aim of improving their energy efficiency and thereby helping to achieve the agreed decarbonisation targets. The General State Budget (PGE) also proposes a notable increase in the funds allocated to housing policies.
Even though SOCIMIS have played a leading role in the Spanish real estate market since 2013 , as a result of Covid-19, their market value has dropped to €21.268 Bn, a decline of more than 17% against the end of 2019. In addition, these vehicles have benefited from a tax regime adapted to that of traditional REITs. Now, however, the government could impose a tax burden of 15% on them, which would damage cash flow and increase the risk premium associated with investing in real estate assets in Spain, say Banco Sabadell analysts.
Indicators for the real estate market show a significant recovery in activity in the sector, following the standstill during the state of alarm. On the demand side, home sales recovered well in July and increased by 20% month-on-month, although in cumulative terms for the year to date there is still a year-on-year decline of 25.8%. On the supply side, the construction sector has also quickly restarted its activity. In August, cement consumption was only 2.1% below the level of August last year, with a notable recovery from the 50% fall registered in April.
The coronavirus pandemic forced a high percentage of Spaniards to telework. Despite this figures has been declining as the social distancing measures have been lifted, many firms are already considering the option of offering their employees a more flexible way of working, combining days working face-to-face in the office with working remotely. Iin this article experts at CaixaBank Research will analyse its implications for urban mobility and, from a longer-term perspective, for the residential real estate market.
European Views | Across Europe, real estate markets which were already daunting for lower-income buyers – like Germany or Portugal – are set to become even more gruelling because of new economic stresses caused by the pandemic. 40% of young people in Europe who are at risk of poverty consider prohibitive housing costs, one of the chief contributors to their plight, while a similar percentage of low-income earners already struggle with overcrowded living situations.
Caixabank Research | In recent years, purchases by foreigners have been fundamental in boosting Spain’s real estate sector, especially in large cities and tourist areas. In 2019, foreigners bought almost 63,000 homes in Spain, accounting for 12.5% of total purchases according to the College of Registrars. We can observe that Q1 sales to foreigners totalled 14,850, down by 6.4% year-on-year. The decline in property purchases by UK citizens (–14%) is particularly large.
Bankia Estudios | Property transactions in the Spanish market have plummeted. Home sales fell sharply in May: only 22,394 transactions, the worst month of May in the available series since 2007, and less than half of the transactions recorded a year ago (48,351 in May 2019). In any event, the deterioration reflects the logical effects of the sector closing down due to the state of alarm. In the second half of the year, the reactivation of the economy, the labour market and, above all, family income will determine the behaviour of demand.
Mainfirst |The January outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in China had a severe impact on the Chinese real estate market, compared to 2019, property sales in February 2020 dropped by 65 percent. The market has now almost recovered from this. This is due to both the special features of the Chinese market and government intervention. Chinese real estate sales have been on the rise since March and April and are now already back to 80 percent of the previous year’s level.
The state reference system for rental price indexes, which indicates that Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, Valencia, Malaga, the Canary and Balearic Islands are the main “stressed” areas, has 11.2 million data on rentals for the last four years. It will be updated annually with information on 1.7 million properties and 33,662 census sections.