As the global outlook improves, many people ask what’s happened to Larry Summer’s hypothesis of Secular Stagnation, which says there are clear signs that the economic world has been “cooling down” for decades. And currently, everything seems to make us think that the recovery we have on our doorstep is not going to be strong or long-lasting.
Without its own demography and without immigration, it’s impossible for the Trump administration’s forecast for annual US GDP growth of 3.5% over the next years to be met.
With his policies, particularly protectionism, Trump is about to throw the US’ world leadership in the bin. He sold an illusion to his voters since the industrial jobs which disappeared with globalisation and technology will not return. What is clear is that the consequences will hurt us all.
There is a sudden push to cut taxes in the US and Europe, although the Spanish government is preparing to increase taxes here, particularly for companies.
The possible modification of the Dodd-Frank law to create a less regulated market, which Donald Trump wants to implement, could give a fresh boost to Treasuries’ IRR.
The joint venture formed by Leandlease and Turner (subsidiary of ACS) has been awarded a project to extend the Jacob K. Javits convention centre (New York) for a total of 1.5 billion dollars (approx. 1.4 billion euros).
Maria Fernando Tapia Cortés | Donald Trump has already built barriers around his relationship with Mexico that are higher than any wall. The diplomatic slip in the form of a tweet that ended with President Enrique Peña Nieto canceling their meeting was apparently fixed after the phone call between the two presidents held on January 27, in which they agreed to not talk publicly of the wall and expressed their desire to keep cooperating on issues like security.
Reagan is a precedent for Trump as Krugman says. We can envisage what Trump’s early years will be like thanks to Reagan. And we could see a similar situation to what was known in the Reagan years as the twin deficits due to the size of the fiscal and external deficits.
Since Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, the markets have seen declines in fixed income securities – bonds have lost 1.5 billion dollars – and rises in equities – with the value of global equities rising by 1.7 billion dollars. The emerging markets have retreated, while there has been an improved performance from cyclical sectors, particularly the financial sector. So we need to ask what will be the best bets for investors once Trump’s presidency begins.
Donald Trump is clearly interfering with corporate liberty, directly criticising on Twitter every investment the big companies make. But the question is that he functions by and for the cameras and hasn’t taken in what the rule of law is. So you can’t ask him to have respect for regulations and institutions. He will be sworn in today.