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In the World, World economy 20th August 2020

U.S.A… The perfect storm

BBVA Research | Bureaucratic missteps by the CDC and the FDA, contradictory messages from elected officials, disregard for intelligence reports, science and experts, lack of medical equipment, years of underfunding public-health departments, spread of misinformation, and private healthcare institutions with misaligned incentives created the perfect storm. Unfortunately, the number of deaths will increase further. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, total deaths could reach 205K to 524K by December 1, implying that Covid-19 will rank as the third leading cause of death in 2020, after heart disease and cancer. 

US China relations

In the World, World economy 15th August 2020

The Technological Threat Intensifies In The Face Of The US Presidential Election

Escalating tension between the United States and China will encourage volatility as the Presidential Election approaches and measures taken against Chinese technology will be the focus. Investors underestimate domestic policy support for Chinese technology, as well as the political risks to American technology, explains Evan Brown, Head of Multi Asset Strategy at UBS AM.

germany US fall

World economy 31st July 2020

USA And Germany: The Engine Of The Two Western Locomotives Is Seizing Up

The economic growth of both economies has fallen sharply in the Q2 of the year due to the coronavirus restriction measures. Germany’s GDP saw a decrease of 11.7% on yoy rate. The country was plunged into the deepest recession in post-war history. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US GDP was down 32.9% in annualised terms, the biggest fall since the current historical series began in 1947. Spain and France accompany them with record contractions of 22,1% and 19%, respectively.

Jay Powell

World economy 30th July 2020

No Action From Fed – But They May Not Have The Luxury Of Inaction For Longer

Monex Europe | The FOMC kept rates unchanged, extended its swap facility, and added language to its statement emphasizing that the path of the US economy depended heavily on the path of the virus. In our view, outcome-based forward guidance is likely as early as September, when the FOMC will have a new batch of projections, as well as hard data indicating the costs of the second wave of COVID-19 infections.

money

World economy 17th July 2020

The US Dollar’s In The Spotlight

We enter the second half of the year with the cases of Covid-19 increasing uncontrollably on the American continent and in a very worrying way in the United States. The growing political uncertainty, accentuated by the trade conflict between US and China, puts the dollar in an unusual situation.Without falling into excessive pessimism, UBS AM Chief Strategist Evan Brown analyses in detail the current state of the currency and reveals his tactical positions given the current scenario.

Eurozone with masks

European economy 15th July 2020

Europe Is Gaining Ground: Eurozone’s Activity Reaches 92% Of Pre-Crisis Level; The US Stagnates At 67%

David Kohl (Chief Economist Germany, Julius Baer) | Lower new infection rates in Europe and a swifter recovery of activity are valid reasons to scale back some pessimism regarding the eurozone growth outlook. The eurozone has ramped up its fiscal response to the corona pandemic. We feel comfortable in expecting for the region a more moderate contraction of -7.2% in 2020.

US presidential campaign

In the World, World politics 14th July 2020

The US Presidential Campaign Heats Up

François Rimeu (La Française AM) | Let us consider some of the main features of Joe Biden’s project: raise taxes on corporations, from 21% to 28%, and wealthy households; increase the minimum wage (from $7.5 to $15 an hour); provide $1,700bn in funding for infrastructure and Green New Deal. In the event of a Biden win, there would no doubt be less political tension across the world, which would be positive.

 

 

US jobs

World economy 4th July 2020

US Strongest Surge Of New Jobs Since 1939, But No Major Surprise

Janwillem Acket (Chief Economist, Julius Baer) | Even though the June figure of overall non-farm job creation in the US (to which all the major segments of the economy contributed) is a historical high since the records started in 1939, there are bitter aftertastes. In fact, continued jobless claims until 20 June, i.e. during the period of data collection for the non-farm jobs, actually rose to 19.29 M, from 19.231 M a week earlier, and the four-week average until 27 June was still at 1.504 M, only slightly down from 1.621 in the previous week.

BBVA Texas

Ibex, Markets 3rd July 2020

BBVA Bets On US Market With The Opening Of 15 New Branches In Texas

These branches, which have already received the relevant opening authorisations, are part of BBVA USA’s five-year strategic plan announced a few months ago. “Although the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the migration of operations from branches to digital channels, in the short term and perhaps beyond, the truth is that banking is a people business,” said Larry Franco, head of retail banking for BBVA USA.