China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) marked its fifth birthday in September 2018, though there was probably less to celebrate than the Chinese authorities might have wished. Five years after President Xi presented the initiative to the world in a speech in Kazakhstan, the BRI is facing pressures on three fronts.Read More
Now the UK parliament has the last word on Brexit agreement. The calendar is the problem and, obviously the problems associated with the decision taken, but a hard Brexit may be less of a risk. The experts from Alphavalue have taken the share prices of Getlink, the public company that manages and operates the Eurotunnel, and the London Stock Exchange Group, as examples of companies whose performance has discounted a soft Brexit scenario for some time.
The TLTROs, or ECB credit lines to European banks, have for years regulated bank liquidity.We are talking about some 725 billion euros in financing, of which 170 billion corresponds to Spanish banks. They are little by little being reduced. It is still not known if they will be withdrawn completely. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, replacing this quantity of TLTROs would not be a panacea for the banks.
Finally, Britain’s House of Commons will vote on the divorce deal with the European Union, today at 19:00 local time. PM Theresa May postponed the vote, originally set for 11 December, due to its lack of support in parliament. Analysts at Julius Baer believe a failed deal will not inevitably lead to the hard no-deal Brexit that many fear. Furthermore, an alliance seeking a softer Brexit, or to abort Brexit, optionally using a second referendum, may take control of the process.Read More
Germany is on track for a technical recession, like Italy. Growth should return in 2019, but slower EM means slower Germany.The main calls for 2019 suggested by the analysts of BoAML are the euro area inflation at 1.0% on average, tricky for the ECB but good for purchasing power. These following are their arguments:Read More