Renta 4 | The Popular Party Parliamentary Group has introduced an amendment (already approved by the Senate, pending Congress) that orders the government to freeze airport charges from 2027 to 2031. It should be pointed out that, despite the fact that fees have been reduced by 36% since 2015, they finance operating costs and investments with a high level of competitiveness at European level. The 2014 law established a double limit (consistent) until 2025: a freeze on fees in exchange for very limited annual investment (maximum €450 million).
Aena considers that this measure ‘distorts’ the regulatory framework as it replaces a technical and economic system (where justified investment is financed) with a discretionary and ‘unfounded’ political decision. Furthermore, it says that it is microeconomically inconsistent to propose a drastic increase in investment (which Aena considers essential) and, at the same time, to prohibit the means of financing it.If this new law is approved, Aena warns that it will be forced to re-examine and significantly reduce the investment plan to increase capacity at some airports, which will go from an average of no more than €450 million per year to over €2 billion.
Assessment: The amendment approved in the Senate introduces regulatory uncertainty regarding the remuneration of Aena’s investments.In addition, Aena’s main growth vector, the expansion of its regulated asset base through DORA III (€9.991 billion), would be put on hold and is likely to be drastically reduced if this amendment becomes law.
Aena will be legally forced to prioritise financial stability (imposed by the tariff freeze) over the execution of its strategic growth and modernisation plan, which would negatively impact the company’s growth prospects and future revenue generation.
We reiterate our underweight rating with a target price of €20.50.
