Report by Renta 4
The Spanish Competition and Markets Authority (CNMC) has published its proposal for the upcoming regulatory period 2027–2031, DORA III. This proposal forecasts an average growth in air traffic of 2.2% (compared to 1.3% forecast by Aena and 3.6% forecast by the airlines), which would result in traffic of 366.7 million passengers by 2031, in line with our forecast.
Furthermore, the regulator proposes a lower growth in Opex than that forecast by Aena (AENA), 1.9% vs 3.8%, and a WACC of 7.44%, which is more in line with comparable European regulations than the 9% proposed by Aena.
This combination of factors leads the regulator to propose an average reduction in charges of 0.59% (compared to the average increase of 3.8% proposed by Aena and the average reduction of 4.9% proposed by the airlines), bearing in mind that our forecast was for charges to remain unchanged over the period.
Aena now has a 15-day period to submit its representations, and once these have been heard by the CNMC, the regulator will make its final proposal, which must be approved by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation and the Ministry of Transport before the end of September 2026.
Assessment: This proposal from the regulator is more in line with our outlook than the proposals from Aena and the airlines, and although it is slightly below our forecast and we cannot rule out it exerting some pressure on the share price during the session, it reinforces our view of a sharp rise in charges in the next regulatory period, DORA IV (2032–2036), given the increase in the regulated asset base resulting from the high level of investment approved to boost capacity at certain airports.
We reiterate our Overweight rating with a Target Price of €30.20 per share.
