Calls for keeping a low-key profile till the new UK Prime Minister takes office and agrees terms with its EU partners on the broad Brexit strategy seem to be being largely ignored. Mr Juncker jumped on the opportunity to deliver a stern and ill-timed warning to the UK.
Brexiters hailed their victory with muted enthusiasm and undisguised concern. Prominent ‘leave’ campaigners called for restraint and patience, highlighting the need to assess strategy carefully before moving for a pull-out. They adamantly rejected triggering the process before informal talks with European partners could pave the way for a balanced outcome.
Today voters will decide which parties have a chance to decide Spain’s future government. The latest opinion polls show the right-wing Partido Popular winning the elections but in need of a helping hand from the Socialists to secure enough backing. The leftist movement Podemos emerges second in the people’s choice, with the potential to seize power if it forges a coalition with the Socialists. So once again, social democrats hold the key to government. An uneasy prospect as supporting others might wreck their future standing.
Just as the British Isles can hardly drift away from the continent we call Europe, the UK won’t quit the EU so easily, even if Brexit supporters are victorious in Thursday’s referendum. Agreeing to the terms of a switch-off process would prove agonisingly slow and tricky, taking no less than five years to complete the disentanglement from common discipline.
Economic forerunners from the four Spanish leading parties engaged themselves in a confusing TV debate on Sunday night. The moderator was much to blame as she hardly clarified the key policy issues, although the participants also proved unable to put forward a coherent analysis of what is at stake in these elections.
Disappointing job growth in May at roughly one-third of the expected figure, coupled with a downward revision for the previous two months, cast unexpected doubts on the US recovery. The labour market has slowed to half the pace seen a year ago.
Mario Draghi can hardly make a move, while Janet Yellen seems bound to do so, no matter the consequences. This summary offers some hindsight on the dilemma facing those at the helm of global financial stability.
June will be a breathtaking month. The outcome of the British referendum could spark shock waves, causing financial assets to plummet everywhere should the Leave camp win. France could be plunged into disarray as the bitter response to the rather mild labour market reform creates further turmoil and widespread strikes.
One month ahead of the referendum on EU membership, polls show no clear winner. The campaigners aiming to anchor the UK in Europe cannot match the warmongering messages from those eager to steer the country away from the continent.
The recent disclosure of the April FOMC minutes has come as a shock. Investors expected a cautious wait-and-see stance by the Federal Reserve at that meeting. But now we discover that a majority of its members openly supported a rate hike at the June gathering, should macro-economic delivery prove reasonably upbeat.