Hard Brexit faces no credible challenge
J. P. Marín-Arrese | All Brexiteers want is fast delivery and no one better placed than Boris to capitalise on their anger and frustration.
Articles by JP Marin Arrese
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JP Marin Arrese
JP Marin Arrese
Draghi leaves an outstanding heritage
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Against all odds, Draghi has secured consensus over his stimuli package by a cunny trade-off between the subdued intensity of individual measures in exchange of ample coverage. His brilliant brinkmanship as Chair of the ECB facilitates the task of his successor as Ms Lagarde can wait-and-see comfortably cushioned by a strong and comprehensive arsenal relieving her of the need to change course for many months to come.
Better red than dead
J.P. Marín Arrese | This motto struck by Bertrand Russell galvanised those opposed to the nuclear weapons race. In his view, surrendering to communism stood as a less harmful choice than the dire prospect of massive immolation in a new world war. Fortunately, we skipped confronting the bad and worst alternatives Mr Russell thought would inevitably emerge.
The ECB poised to loosen money conditions
JP Marín-Arrese | Christine Lagarde’s nomination ensures the ECB will fully preserve Draghi’s heritage. It will certainly deliver a substantive loosening in monetary policy over the coming months. Everyone expects the first move to materialise this week, probably a rate cut. Anything short of a clear message in the coming press conference would deeply disappoint the markets. Whatever happens next Thursday, more robust action will materialise before the year close.
Monetary policy may run out of steam
J. P. Marín-Arrese | While betting on such firepower helped to ground the recovery, its ability to deliver a sustained boom seems less obvious.
Jerome Powell wrestles with an intricate conundrum
J. P. Marín-Arrese | US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces the dilemma of choosing the right path, confronted with conflicting data and forecasts. While the US economy grew at a booming 4% rate in the first quarter, inflation trails far behind the Fed’s objective and salaries fail to pick up despite historically low levels of unemployment. Moreover, the trade tug-of-war with China is denting confidence in consumers and investors alike. Should the conflict turn worse, the economy might suffer a harsh blow.
Will Draghi’s Sweeping U-Turn Save The Day?
J.P. Marín-Arrese | Even if income losses could shore up to some extent the immediate impact of a recessive bout, running huge deficits would exert a destabilising and uneven effect on public finances. The lack of risk-sharing schemes weighs down on Euro-zone resilience when subject to severe strain as record shows.
Theresa May’ U-Turn On Brexit
J.P. Marín- Arrese | The PM has dramatically shifted her Brexit plans. She no longer clings to forcefully maintaining them against all the odds. Her doomed proposal will suffer yet another rebuke from Parliament. Immediately, she will put on vote the ‘no deal’ option, betting it will sink deep enough to thoroughly disallow its supporters.
An Unconvincing 2019 Spanish Budget
J.P. Marín- Arrese | The Spanish government has released its main budgetary lines, in a rather unusual and surprising way. For, it holds responsible the former PP Cabinet for most of the expenses plus a sizeable deviation from the deficit goal in 2018. The least one can say is that such a baffling message underlines its inability to curb the imbalance while enjoying power for the second half of this year.
Intelligent Bombs Do Not Kill People
J.P. Marín-Arrese | “At least, no single Yemeni would face death singled out by these ingenious devices shipped from Spain to Saudi Arabia.” Such a startling statement did not come from the arms industry, but the Spanish government spokeswoman.