Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | As symbols go, the imaginary pig’s head in William Golding’s Lord of the Flies requires little explanation. Its meaning is summed up in one line of the unnerving classic. “Fancy thinking the beast was something you could hunt and kill!” says the fly-infested head. “You knew, didn’t you? I’m part of you?”
UBS | In recent notes (” Trouble down the line “, ” The outlook for OPEC production capacity “) we detailed the meaningful slow-down in activity we are seeing across the industry. This is being driven by a reassessment of portfolios, on grounds of affordability and in reaction to structural and cyclical deflationary dynamics. In this note we show the effect of this slowdown on investment levels. The results have been dramatic.
The weakness of the Caixin’s PMI, where services and the composite indexes moderated growth to 51.2 and 49.4 respectively, reminds Intermoney’s analysts of the reality that is China’s economic slowdown.
UBS | On 29 February the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 50bps cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). We think RRR cuts are having a diminishing impact on banks’ inc entives to lend, since the loan -to- deposit ratio (LDR) limit of 75% has been removed.
Goldman Sachs | While we expect that the combination of the fall in oil prices, the rise in the Euro and the weakening of equity prices will have relatively limited effects on growth, the effects on the near-term inflation outlook are likely to be much more substantial.
Spain’s three biggest utility companies, Iberdrola, Endesa and Gas Natural, earned 30% less in 2015, recording a combined profit of € 5.0009,6 billion in 2015, 29.6% less than a year earlier.
Erik Berglof via Caixin | On December 14, the board of governors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) approved China’s application for membership. China is, of course, already a shareholder in several global and regional development institutions, but the EBRD is different in its focus on private sector development.
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Thanks to the extraordinary insights of blogger Kevin Erdmann, the issue of US housing costs and inflation has been brought into better focus. Erdmann recently brought up manufactured housing, or house-trailers, a wonderful topic.
UBS | A date for referendum is set and the pound is getting pounded. The United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the UK announced that the referendum vote will take place on 23 June 2016.
James Alexander via Historinhas | I was pleased to report some traction in the Market Monetarist campaign to see inflation targets substituted by, or added to, an NGDP growth target. One common pushback I’ve received recently is if the central bank can’t hit a 2% target how can it hit a tougher target? It’s a reasonable question.