James Alexander via Historinhas | I was pleased to report some traction in the Market Monetarist campaign to see inflation targets substituted by, or added to, an NGDP growth target. One common pushback I’ve received recently is if the central bank can’t hit a 2% target how can it hit a tougher target? It’s a reasonable question.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | Political scientists Torben Iversen and David Soskice have found, to their surprise, that democracies with low inequality, like Denmark and the Netherlands, are politically more polarized than countries that are less equal, such as the United States.
Jarno Lang | For the past 12 months, headlines over refugees and capsized boats have dominated the news agenda. The first month of 2016 was the deadliest January to date, counting casualties in the Mediterranean alone. The number of displaced people—about 60 million—is now on par with that experienced during World War II.
Michele Geraci via Caixin | The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The “belt and road” initiatives. The yuan entering the International Monetary Fund’s basket of reserve currencies. The Winter Olympics in Beijing. President Xi Jinping’s many trips abroad. His banquets with Queen Elizabeth and handshake with Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe.
Julius Baer Research | Yields of German 2-year and 5-year government bonds are down to -0.55% and -0.36%, respectively, testament that the market is not expecting the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to hammer out a global deal against falling interest rates.
According to Bankinter’s analysts, there will be a moderate increase in housing prices (around 3-5 % between 2016 and 2017), and it will only happen in certain places. So Spain’s property prices will not return to the pre-crisis record highs, but will reach levels similar to that in 2004.
The figures in Spain are stubborn and worrying. Public debt will exceed 100% of GDP in 2016 and the deficit is not keeping pace with commited goals. So Spain’s public finances are a potential source of future instability, which the country cannot permit given that its external debt is close to 170% of GDP.
Maxime Larivé | European governments have let a member state of the European Union (EU) cherry-pick the terms of its place in the union, potentially setting an irreversible situation. But should the United Kingdom remain an EU member under its new agreement? This question should be asked to all EU citizens.
UBS | Global trade in goods and services has risen to a record share of the world economy in real terms. In nominal terms it has stagnated – which basically tells us that the price of traded goods and services is falling relative to the price of non-traded goods and services. Hardly surprising given where oil is.
BARCLAYS | Having largely pre-released numbers with its trading statement the focus from Repsol’s 4Q results is on whether or not the group will be able to retain its Investment Grade credit rating, given the prevailing environment.