UBS | The current global growth scare, which has recently focused on the US, has set off a train of events that, rather implausibly, is leading to modest outperformance by EM (v. DM) equities in down markets so far this year. We explain this very simply; worries over the US economy have pulled the dollar lower and have, for now, taken some, much – needed, currency pressure off EM equity markets.
Leandro Cañibano and Felipe Herranz | The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has reintroduced the concept of prudence to its draft revised Conceptual Framework approved in 2015. But the scope is different from that contained in the 1989 Framework and, of course, very different from what it normally is.
In an attempt to out-macho the US and impress Germany , the ECB under Trichet decided to stamp on headline inflation hitting nearly 3% in early 2011, while core remained solidly below 2%.
BARCLAYS | We believe that uncertainty on the timing of the UK referendum on EU membership and its outcome will have a temporary negative impact on the UK’s economic activity, mostly through lower private investment. We expect growth to slow to 1.9% in 2016 from 2.2% in 2015
Yishu Zhou | The latest Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), held last December in Johannesburg, South Africa, was monumental for a number of reasons—not least Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unveiling of an unprecedented $60 billion development and investment deal in aid of Africa over the next three years.
Vincent Chan via Caixin | The Hong Kong dollar has been under pressure recently. On January 20, the value of the currency plunged to an eight-year low of 7.8228 to the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the stock market’s benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 3.8 percent from the previous day to 18,886.3, the lowest level in 42 months.
UBS | Gamesa has confirmed it is in talks with Siemens regarding a combination with some of Siemens’ wind assets “through a merger structure”. A merger is the preferable option against the possibility of Siemens acquiring Gamesa. The primary reason is that the value of the potential synergies are shared between the two parties rather than, as is often the case in a take-over, transferred to the seller.
The current uncertain political panorama in Spain after the December 20 elections has not been reflected in any significant way in sovereign debt spreads. The yield on the 10-year bond compared with the German bund is around 130 bp, no more than 10-15 bp above the pre-elections level. One alternative to reduce (or diversify) exposure to Spain’s public debt may be take positions in Italian debt.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | Since 2014, Spain’s economy has been recovering and this has been apparent in almost all sectors, but unevenly. One example is the retail sector, with big names like Mercadona, El Corte Inglés, Inditex and Carrefour. All four companies increased their sales in Spain in 2014 (by 2%, 5%, 2.6% and 0.1% respectively).
John Bruton | In June, the people of the United Kingdom may vote to leave the European Union (EU). At the moment, a narrow majority favors remaining in the EU, but a large group is undecided. That group could swing toward a “leave” position for a variety of reasons, including what might be temporary EU problems with refugees. However temporary the reasons might be, a decision to leave would be politically irreversible.