FOMC Preview: No move; signal December
Barclays | We expect the Fed to remain on hold at its September meeting, deferring rate hikes while it assesses renewed risks to the outlook.
Markets
A Macro View of Recent Market Volatility
By Michael Hasenstab and Sonal Desai via Caixin | China’s devaluation of the yuan has prompted worries, but these are overblown regarding both China and other markets.
Chinese Stock Market: Blaming a Business Journalist for Market Turmoil Is Misguided
By Nailene Chou Wiest via Caixin | When the authorities scapegoat a journalist because he wrote a story without official permission, they scare anyone who wants to perform policy-related reporting.
Fed keeps the markets in suspense
Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting ( September 16th and 17th) has investors on tenterhooks. Some Fed members have recently pointed to a possible rate hike in September, raising concerns not only in the markets but also amongst IMF and World Bank leaders.
Regulators Seek Formula for Handling Algorithmic Trading
As institutional investors embrace computer programs that rapidly place orders, the government tries to figure out how to regulate the practice.
It’s Not Draghi’s Fault If Spanish Banks’ Profitability Is Low
Confusing costs with revenues, or assets with liabilities, is lethal if you are analysing the situation of the banks. It now appears that, according to some so-called experts, the ECB and its low interest rate policy is to blame for the weakness and lack of profitability amongst Spanish banks.
The Oil Prospect of ‘Lower for Longer’
Analysts at UBS are cutting our oil price forecast for the period 2015-19 and cutting long-term normalised view to $80/bbl from $90/bbl. Near oil term forecasts reflect the prospect of a lower 3Q outturn and the base from which we see the recovery in prices rising from
“Deflation Remains More of a Threat to Growth Than Low Interest Rates”
Are we putting the responsilibity of exiting the crisis on central banks’ shoulders? Is ECB’s president Mario Draghi doing traders a favour by playing down the ECB’s responsibility for contributing to volatility? Professor of Financial Mathematics at Bocconi’s University Marcello Minenna answers to these questions from Milan and argues that a low interest rate environment is here to stay.
The ECB eases further: yet another example of “infinitely short and not variable”
By James Alexander via Historinhas | Another day another proof of the immediate impact of active monetary policy in altering NGDP growth expectations and therefore setting the flight path to a different future.
When EM sneeze, developed countries catch a cold
Markets, especially stocks exchanges, will continue to suffer from a slowdown in global growth. IMF managing director Christine Lagarde warned on Tuesday that expansion in EM as well as in developed ones will be “weaker” than expected in July.