CANCUN (MEXICO) | A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…” the Federal Reserve did not even announce its interest rate movements. Fed watchers had to infer the lending policy of the world’s most powerful central bank just by painstakingly perusing the documents–release, obviously, in paper–of the Fed’s open market operations.
LONDON | On the eve of the biggest Q2 reporting week for EU companies, Barclays top-down model suggests a further acceleration is imminent for euro area stocks, with 6% likely for 2015 as a whole.
LONDON | Barclays | For the Bull market to continue we now need companies to deliver on earnings.
MADRID | They’ve been scaring us with an eventual China crash which would drag the world’s economy. And yet Daily Telegraph’s Roger Bootle insists there is no reason to panic here. The ratio of tradeable equities to GDP is running at just under 30%, while in most countries it exceeds 100%. See the New York Stock Exchange on the graph.
The Corner | July 26, 2015 | Spanish listed banks’ Q2’15 earnings season starts today. Analysts at AFI are less optimistic than consensus estimates.
HONG KONG | July 24, 2015 | Barclays | The Markit “flash” manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 48.2 in July, reaching a 15-month low (consensus: 49.7; Barclays: 49.7). The weaker PMI supports our view that the economy is not on solid footing, and we look for a flat growth profile in H2.
MADRID | July 23, 2015 | By Francisco López | Until just over one year ago, funds with high exposure to emerging economies were the start product. Now the trend has reversed. Investors are rolling back their positions due to the vulnerabilities that present many countries due after the fall in commodities prices, China’s economy slowdown and expectations of US Fed rates hike.
LONDON | July 15, 2015 | BNP Paribas | The fall in the Chinese equity markets is mainly a market correction phenomenon, the most important question now is how it will transmit to the real economy. Our view is that the transmission will be muted.
LONDON | July 14, 2015 | UBS | The “Wall of Worry” for the European Equity Bull market has shifted somewhat from Greece to China.
The Corner | July 14, 2015 | Stocks and bonds’ behaviour will still depend on how the Greek crisis unfolds but macro and corporate results should start to gain some traction.