Apolline Menut (AXA Investment) | The Next Generation EU package is a genuine step forward. Joint debt issuance, fiscal transfers and proposed joint tax revenues are politically meaningful. But the package is too small (around 5% of EU GDP) and slow (peaking in 2023-2024) to be a proper cyclicalstabilisation tool.
European markets have opened higher this morning following some upbeat PMI data. Readings above 50 indicate growth and while the readings for Germany stopped just short, France’s numbers cleared that important level. France’s CAC 40 is up 1.6%, the UK benchmark FTSE 100 is up 0.8% but leading the way is the German Dax up over 2%.
CaixaBank Research | The impact of the coronavirus on inflation is uncertain, as there are simultaneous supply and demand movements that can tilt the balance towards more inflation, disinflation, or even deflation. In the short term, despite measurement problems and the closure of markets, disinflation has dominated. In the medium term, several factors suggest that disinflationary pressures will continue to dominate. In the long term, transformations such as deglobalisation or shifts in consumption patterns could lead to structural changes.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano (1962 Capital SICAV) | The starting point is much more solid than in 2008, when the banks emerged from many years of double-digit credit expansion and high rates. In addition, European banks have significantly improved their equity base, which is double, or even almost triple, the levels reached a decade ago in all their solvency ratios. The ratio of higher quality capital to risk-weighted assets, (CET1 or common equity tier 1) has risen from levels below 6% in 2011 to over 14% today.
Spanish banks have requested more than €97.9 Bn in the auction. Caixabank has already announced that it has requested 40.7 billion euros, the total to which it is entitled. Other lenders have also made their moves: €27 Bn requested by Sabadell, €21 Bn by BBVA and €9.2 Bn by Bankia. In Italy, Intesa and Unicredit have already reached € 70,000 and €93,000, the latter reaching its limit. Some systems in southern Europe (such as Italy) could have reached 85% to 90% of their total TLTRO limits.
Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | German corporations are highlighting the risks of the global distribution of work, their weakness in the face of global value chains. Will work and production return to Europe, to Germany? It’s not clear. The pandemic has led to unprecedented reactions and almost unconditional support for Europe. It’s a way of helping yourself. Germany is expecting the worst recession since World War II, with the economy declining by up to 8% in 2020.
Peder Beck-Friis, (Portfolio Manager, Global Macro PIMCO) | BoE will announce its next policy decision on Thursday (noon, UK time). We expect them to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.1% and to add +100bn of QE purchases. This is in line with market pricing.
Allianz Global Investors | That question is heard quite often in connection with the corona-related fiscal packages. While there is no shortage of suggestions of how the new public expenditure and old debt is to be funded, many people seem to be overlooking the fact that the current low or negative interest-rate environment is already making a major contribution to debt reduction. This article will analyse the impact of implicit interest rates, growth and inflation on debt ratios in Germany, France, Spain and Italy.
In 2019, the euro consolidated its role as the second most widely used currency in the world at a considerable distance from the dollar, which retains its hegemony as the global reserve currency. The exception was in the area of green bond issues, where euro-denominated issues once again led the market. Specifically, according to data provided by the ECB, about 45.4% of ‘green’ bond issues worldwide were denominated in euros, compared to 25.7% in dollars and 28.9% in other currencies.
Intermoney | Based on the ECB’s macroeconomic forecasts, we can extrapolate that the financing needs of the EMU countries will be around €1.5 Tr between 2020 and 2021. And if 73.5% of the PEPP continues to be used to acquire sovereign debt from the different Eurozone’s members, the programme would cover almost 65% of the needs for this year and next. All this, without taking into account the €120 Bn from the reinforced Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and the €360 Bn that it should add up to mid-2021.