The ECB will not start the normalization of its monetary policy in 2019. This is the bet of Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum AM (affiliated to Natixis AM). He also thinks that the interest rate level will remain stable, that the refi rate and the deposit rate will remain at the current level in 2019.
Miguel Navascués | Theresa May has categorically denied Pedro Sánchez’ illusions over Gibraltar and co-sovereignty which he wanted to sell us. May has said that “Spain has gained nothing of what it sought over Gibraltar”, compared to Sánchez’ claim that “there has been an historic agreement” in relation to co-sovereignty. I don´t believe this issue matters in the slightest to Spaniards.
Theresa Crysmann | In the world’s second biggest lobbying capital after Washington DC, around 30,000 lobbyists also work outside of office hours to advance the interests of their mostly corporate employers. Conservative estimates put the annual value of the city’s lobby machine at €1.5 billion.
University of Surrey) via The Conversation | With the centenary of the end of World War I in November, there have been plenty of sombre occasions for European leaders of late. But perhaps none have been quite as sombre as the brief meeting to sign the withdrawal agreement detailing the UK’s departure from the European Union.
The EC found yesterday that Italy is in breach of the European Union’s debt criterion, with a debt/GDP ratio of 131.2% for 2017, significantly above the EU’s threshold of 60%. According to the firm Julius Baer, it is obviou the 60% target introduced in the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s cannot be binding anymore, given the elevated debt levels across European countries.
After being arrested by Japanese authorities on Monday for alleged fiscal fraud, Carlos Ghosn, Chairman of Nissan and CEO of Renault has been temporarily suspended at the head of the company and remains chairman “temporarily incapacitated”. The greater integration of the alliance between Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi is now left in the air. Furthermore, it generates uncertainty in relation to the corporate governance practices of the alliance.
Alexandre Mato | Rome and Brussels are engaged in a permanent dispute over the 2019 budgets, exacerbated by the lies of the populist Italian coalition. The Commission leaders counterattack with the data in hand. Between 2014 and 2020 Italy will receive almos€43 Bn in European structural and investment funds.
A disagreement on Brexit is a possibility. In this environment it is fair to point out that companies in the UK focused on the local market do not seem too worried about the negative aspects of this scenario, such as UK GDP growth. Strategists at Alphavalue have analysed the performance of 22 UK shares with distinctively domestic “flavour”.
The Conversation | A draft agreement on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union has been reached between representatives of both sides, alongside an Outline Political Declaration on a future relationship. It remains to be seen whether the British government is able to survive, and gain parliamentary support for the deal. Here, though, academic experts consider what adoption of the 585-page draft Withdrawal Agreement would mean. Read about its implications for Northern Ireland, citizens, sovereignty, the transition, the UK economy and the EU.
Alicia García Herrero | 2018 will be recalled as the year in which the US wake up to China’s economic power through a trade war. The question to ask ourselves now is how this may affect Europe. The first issue to realize is that European and US exports into China are very similar, which points to a potential substitution of American products in the Chinese market but also the other way around, namely substituting Chinese exports into the US by European ones.