In Europe



Italy's economy entering a crucial period in its Euro membership

The ‘antiestablishment’ pact in Italy augurs a rise in the country’s public deficit

Paula Sampedro (Link Securities) |There are various fronts open on the political front during this week. Specifically, the Italian political parties La Liga (extreme rightwing) and the Movimiento Cinco Estrellas (anti-establishment) are expected to present their programme for government to the country’s president Sergio Mattarella, after reaching an agreement to form a new government in Italy.

 


Tied hands

The long road towards creating a safe European asset

CaixaBank Research | The European Commission is looking at how the banks can have a more diversified portfolio of public debt securities. It is studying how to obtain a safe European asset without having to establish a tax union to back the issue of said asset.

 



Figures for consumption

Europeans Purchasing Power is Rising; Consumption will Recover

Francisco Vidal | The demand for credit from households continues to rise in the EMU and, in particular, consumer credit. Entries for lending of M3, once the figures have been seasonally-adjusted and the effect of certain changes in the perimeter have been factored in, showed that loans to households are growing at a rate of 3.0% annually, led by those earmarked for consumption (+ 7% annually)



Two months after the general elections, Italy continues to be in a political deadlock

Will Markets Remain Cool About Italy?

Two months after the general elections, Italy continues to be in a political deadlock. In fact,president Mattarella considers new elections in July a possibility if a “truce government” has no majority in Parliament. As negotiations continue, possibly preceded by a transition government, Italian authorities are tasked with passing the budget in the fall and approving a new electoral law that would deliver a clearer winner at the next election.


The first EU budget at 27

Brexit and the European capitals market

Miguel Navascués | When the signs of an incipient slowdown in the European economy begin to multiply – the matching indicators suggest that industrial production slowed in 2018 – the case for reaching an agreement on Brexit and refocusing attention on unifying the capital markets becomes increasingly more powerful and urgent.


european union

The Eurozone Joins The “Weak Q1” Club

Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 arrived in line with a GDP tracker at +0.4% on a quarterly basis estimated by AXA IM strategists (versus a consensus of 0.6%) and reflected “the weakness in industrial production in several member states during January and February.”