With a very low jobless rate (5,8%), Germany is growing for the eighth year in a row. This is allowing it to attract capital and qualified workers. Even so, the future of the jobs market is a concern, and a key issue in this Autumn’s elections.
The surprisingly low annual eurozone inflation reading for March at 1.5% will finally end speculation about an earlier end to the negative deposit rate in today’s ECB’s governing council meeting, as reported by Julius Bär’s experts. Both ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet and ECB President Mario Draghi have already made clear in recent weeks that interest rates will not rise before the ECB’s asset-purchasing programme comes to an end.
European capitals have welcomed with relief Macron’s victory in the first round of the French elections. But even if Macron’s lead in the first round seems comfortable enough, support for extremist parties represents more than half of total votes. This could lead to unstability in the country which Macron will need to be able to control.
John Bruton | British Prime Minister Theresa May has decided to call an early election before the practical outworking of her Brexit strategy becomes obvious to voters. She wants to be free to modify her strategy, and needs a bigger parliamentary majority. She claims otherwise. Instead, May says she is calling the election because the other parties oppose her Brexit strategy. They don’t oppose it, actually. They have cooperated with it to a point that makes little of parliamentary sovereignty.
Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron was victorious over right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen in yesterday’s French general election, winning 23.9% of vote versus her 21.4%. These results practically guarantee his being elected as the country’s new President in the second round in two weeks time.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | If you want to understand what’s going on in continental European politics, don’t rely solely on American and British sources. English-language commentators routinely misread the mood and have a tendency to project their own doubts about the European Union on the people living in it.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has unexpectedly been gaining ground in the run-up to this Sunday’s French elections. So much so that some experts believe it’s possible the second round will consist of extreme right candidate Marine Le Pen versus Mélenchon. But Fidelity’s Nick Peters still believes the most likely scenario is a second round face-off between Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron.
J. L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Stable inflation centred around levels of 2.0%…A scenario dominated by rising inflation is as complicated as one where deflation and potential low economic growth can create a vicious circle difficult to exit. Especially in a context of high indebtedness.
Wolfango Piccoli via Macropolis | As both the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are likely to win any upcoming elections, the approved constitutional changes will institutionalizs a populist one-man system equipped with vast additional powers. These will be usurped from other institutions without introducing the checks and balances required to safeguard against a further authoritarian turn.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for a general election on June 8 is a very important coup for the Brexit process. It assumes these elections will allow her to bring together a lot of favourable intent, when the opposition is trying to find itself. With her majority reinforced, she will be in a stronger position to negotiate the Brexit deal.