There is an increasing risk in French politics that Marine Le Pen will be victorious, which is fuelling a rise in the differential between the German and French bond to a four-year maximum. The markets are increasingly more sensitive, and it’s not just France. There are no political candidates left who do not pose a threat.
UK macro data continues to surprise positively, but the same is no longer true of bank volumes. Mortgage loan growth slowed “slightly” in 4Q16, while corporate loan balances contracted, “as a combination of higher stamp duty and Brexit -related fears” served to delay investment decisions and dampen loan demand, say Citi’s analysts.
Greece’s creditor countries in Europe do not feel like giving it a debt ‘haircut’. Furthermore, Greece says that the IMF is too pessimistic about the future. But Europe wants the IMF’s participation, which would give the agreement a greater hallmark of respectability.
Marine Le Pen is likely to win the most votes in the first round, but she can only count on approximately seven million loyal voters out of possibly more than 46 million in the second round.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | The meeting of the International Monetary Fund’s executive board on Monday ended without any clear conclusion on where the IMF stands in the Greek programme.
Germany’s external trade figures are an insult for the EU and the euro- it reaches the incredible figure of 300 billion euros, or 9% of GDP. It doesn’t look like the US would be too unhappy about getting rid of the single currency, with the help of Le Pen and others.
The advances in inflation figures throughout the Eurozone will be a subject of debate in the coming weeks, not least because of its bigger-than-expected rise. An increase which has a common thread in the form of hikes in energy prices and, to a lesser extent, in food prices.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | Often, the decisions taken by the eurozone that shaped the Greek crisis at pivotal moments and sealed the country’s fate were defined by the limitations that the decision makers were facing and not the approach that would have produced the optimal result.
Construction in Europe grew by 2 percent in 2016. Annual growth in the sector is expected to continue at around this rate for the next three years until the end of 2019, according to calculations by the Euroconstruct research network. The strongest stimuli will come from new residential construction, which grew by a good 7 percent in 2016.
The euro’s fourth biggest economy will not be the protagonist in long economic debates in 2017. Spain’s deficit and its domestic politics are no longer a concern for Brussels, now focused on the Brexit negotiations and worried about the complicated elections cycle in various countries.