Germany is a country of travellers. Three out of every four people go on holiday at least once a year. And Spain is their main foreign destination: over 10 million Germans visit the country on an annual basis – spending almost 10 billion euros – running a close second to the number of UK tourists to Spain. Almost half of them travel with a package deal from TUI, world leader in the sector. Sebastian Ebel is the CEO of TUI Germany.
Many take comfort from the prospect of higher inflation and rising interest rates driven by the fiscal stimulus the President-elect Trump promises to deliver. This will push the dollar up, endowing European exports with increased competitiveness. Yet the currency tailwind expectations might prove short lived as current debt levels curb any significant public deficit-led expansion.
According to ECB data, housing prices in the Eurozone have continued to rise in the second half of the year. Growth of 3.0%, picking up from the 2.6% increase in the first quarter and from the 2.2% rise registered at end-2015. In real terms, taking into account the GDP deflator, price levels are above their record average.
It’s not a coincidence that Spain and Italy are the biggest debtors in TARGET2 and the most politically unstable. Both have increased their debts with Germany and other countries: Spain from 189.9 billion euros to 319.7 billion. Italy from 188.6 billion to 353.9 billion. Not insignificant amounts.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | What could Greece have expected from the visit of a US leader in the final days of his presidency, before he is replaced by someone who appears to be the antithesis in personal and policy terms? Not much. What did it get from Barack Obama’s brief stay in Athens? Probably more than it expected.
One of the pending adjustments involved in the process of exiting the crisis is related to damaged assets, mainly property. This phenomenon has prevented the Spanish banks from showing off the huge restructuring efforts they have made with better figures.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis| From the beginning of the crisis, Greek debt has often been the elephant in the room. Over the last year it has taken on the form of an unsolvable equation as key decisions makers have taken positions that do not appear to overlap.
Within the EU it is being discussed how to set up a fiscal backstop, a barrier of public money to be used in times of crisis, not just to help out a bank. One option being considered in Brussels is turning The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a kind of management tool for a crisis.
BoAML | The last few months have been jammed with corporate bond issuance in Europe: refinancing deals, M&A supply, foreign issuers, debut names and unrated bonds, for instance. Mario Draghi spoke highly of the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme at the last ECB meeting, and we think it reflects precisely this. The central bank has been able to quickly generate corporate bond supply (and buy it), helping to counter the frustrations with low sovereign debt issuance.
BoAML | Euro area GDP grew 0.3% qoq in 3Q, in line with consensus expectations and our tracker. Meanwhile, inflation was again weaker than the release would suggest, if we look at the finer details.