In Europe


Bundesbank predicts German economy to enter mild recession in 1Q2023

Link Securities | According to the German central bank, the Bundesbank, in its monthly bulletin, and reported yesterday by Europa Press, the German economy will probably enter recession in 1Q2023 as the evolution of GDP will be weaker than in 4Q2022, when activity contracted by 0.2%. The Bundesbank also says it is confident that this contraction in economic activity will be milder than it expected in its December projections. According…

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Bankruptcies rise 27% and hit record highs in Europe

Santander | One good one, and then… And while flows into IG funds reach record highs of $19mm YTD globally, corporate bankruptcies have also jumped to record highs in the EU. And they grew by +27% in Q4 to the highest level since Eurostat has been collecting data (2015). On the other hand, although the technical picture is undoubtedly good, the trajectory is not. And while Europe is experiencing a…

Cepsa IPO

Cepsa and ACE Terminal Rotterdam consortium to open green ammonia shipping corridor between Algeciras and Rotterdam

Norbolsa : The company has signed a memorandum of understanding with the ACE Terminal de Rotterdam consortium of companies by which the Spanish energy company has initiated a collaboration with the aim of reaching a binding agreement to facilitate the maritime transport of green ammonia between the port of Algeciras and the port of Rotterdam for its final use in industry. The ammonia can also be used directly by fertiliser…


Eurozone liquidity falls 12% in three months

Morgan Stanley analysts explain that excess liquidity in the European market multiplied in the post-Covid phase: from €1.7tn in December 2019 to a peak of €4.8tn in September 2022 and this increase helped stabilise the equity market during 2020. But “in the last three months we have seen this excess liquidity reduce by -12% (part of the ECB’s plan, by ending APP reinvestments and reducing TLTROs)


Services PMIs to return to positive territory in Eurozone for first time in months

Intermoney | On the European continent, we will be looking forward to the activity data that will be offered by the preliminary PMI readings for February. For the first time in several months we will see readings above 50 in several economies and in the eurozone as a whole, especially in the indicators for services and the composite indicator, while in manufacturing activity the PMIs will again show a very…

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European banks earn +9% in 2022 versus previous year and eurozone banks +13%, thanks to strong interest margins

Morgan Stanley : The banking sector’s earnings release was again very successful with PBT beating consensus by 10%, up 20% on last year. Revenues were +9% year on year (+13% eurozone banks), 3% better than consensus, thanks to the strength of NII which offset the fall in fees and commissions. Costs rose 3-4% and were slightly worse than expected. NII was up on average +13% year-on-year and 3% better than…


European Commission upgrades forecasts but inverted German debt curve points to recession

The European Commission has raised its 2023 growth forecast to 0.9% vs 0.3% and lowered its inflation forecast from 6.1% to 5.65% for this year. The note highlights that domestic demand could turn out to be stronger than expected if the recent declines in wholesale gas prices are passed through to consumer prices more strongly, which we doubt, and consumption proves more resilient. In fact, this has had little reaction…

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Helena Viñes to pilot new version of European Platform on Sustainable Finance

F.R. | Helena Viñes, director of the CNMV, is the new Chair of the Platform on Sustainable Finance, the European body that advises the EC on sustainability, including the strategy and also the drafting of specific projects such as the taxonomy. Viñes will lead the new path of a Platform that has reduced its number of members from 57 to 35 in an attempt to improve its efficiency and operability….

Hydrogen Spain

France clashes with Germany and Spain over “pink” hydrogen

Banca March | The lack of support from Germany and Spain for labelling nuclear-derived hydrogen – pink hydrogen – as “green” within the European taxonomy has infuriated the French government, which claimed to have the commitment of both countries. The dispute could call into question the construction of a gas pipeline linking Germany and Spain, as well as delaying European green legislation.

Spanish Banks

ECB warns Spanish banks to be extra vigilant on defaults due to rate hikes

Divacons / Norbolsa | A total of five Spanish banks are in the ECB’s top 20 in terms of assuming lower capital requirements in what is known as Pillar 2 by 2023, according to supervisory data published yesterday by the ECB. According to Alphavale-Divacons, these are Kutxabank, Bankinter, Santander, Caixabank and BBVA. Kutxabank is the Spanish institution that has received the lowest capital ratio for this year in Pillar 2,…