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European economy, In Europe 29th March 2023

EC suspends €19-billion Next Generation funds payment to Italy due to sluggish progress on reforms demanded by Brussels

Renta 4 : European markets open higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.5%), with the markets on hold ahead of the inflation data due on Thursday and Friday in Europe and the US, which will determine the extent to which central banks will have to continue to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the most advanced cycle indicators (German IFO, US Conference Board consumer confidence) show a better than expected performance in March, although the…

European economy, In Europe 29th March 2023

Eurozone M3 growth at slowest since 2014: +2.9% year-on-year, down from +3.5% previously, below expected +3%

BancaMarch : In the Eurozone, money supply continues to slow down. In February, M3 growth (the broadest monetary aggregate) moderated more than expected to +2.9% year-on-year, down from +3.5% previously and below the +3% expected. It should be noted that this is the slowest pace of money supply growth since 2014. If we analyse the evolution of loans, the slowdown deepened in loans to households (+3.2% vs. +3.6% previously), with…

European economy, In Europe 28th March 2023

German business confidence rises in March to 93.3 from February’s 91.1

Bankinter | IFO Business Climate Survey (March) 93.3 vs 91.0 expected and 91.1 previous. Expectations 91.1 vs 88.3 expected and 88.5 previous. Current Situation 95.4 vs 94.1 expected and 93.9 previous. Analysis: The data bring a positive surprise. However, in the current context, the IFO is less influential. This week the focus is on the financial sector and inflation data in Europe. The downside is that solid economic data give…

European economy 25th March 2023

Eurozone economy revived by services sector: composite PMI rises to 54.1 in March

CdM : The eurozone economy seems to be showing signs of coming back to life. In March, the services sector has been driving the revival and economic growth has accelerated to a ten-month high, according to the PMI index. Inflationary pressures have moderated, while employment growth accelerates and business confidence remains resilient. S&P Global’s seasonally adjusted flash composite PMI index of total euro area activity rose for the fifth consecutive…

European economy, European politics 23rd March 2023

European banks: systemic risk dissipates after Credit Suisse buyout by UBS

Bankinter : The chairman of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, Andrea Enria, highlights the soundness of the sector and considers that the shareholder remuneration policy (average pay-out ~50.0% of NAB) is reasonable. Banking rose +4.79% on Tuesday. Positive highlights: UBS/Switzerland (CHF 19.42; +12.2%); Commerzbank/Germany (CHF 10.02; +7.4%), Sabadell/Spain (CHF 1.07; +7.5%), Unicredit/Italy (CHF 17.42; +6.9%), ING (CHF 11.16; +5.9%) and BBVA/Spain (CHF 6.57; +5.4%). Analyst’s view: Sector fundamentals are good (liquidity,…

European economy 23rd March 2023

Switzerland has a problem: its banking system is 4.5 times its GDP

Scope Rating | The unprecedented and last-minute deal, to be completed in the coming weeks, should help contain the financial cost of stabilising the hard-pressed Credit Suisse for the Swiss Confederation and also contain potential spillovers to the wider Swiss economy. The developments highlight the long-standing risks to the economy stemming from the banking system, given its large size relative to the Swiss economy and annual budget. Total assets of…

European economy, In Europe 21st March 2023

Banks (trading on 0.6x price-to-book-value ratio and 6x price-to-earnings ratio for 2023E) still expect record year in 2023

Dirk Becker (Allianz GI) | Credit Suisse has been seen as the weakest link in the global banking sector for several months, after various scandals and poor management decisions. We think the merger can therefore help to stabilise the global financial system: In our view, UBS are being paid for running down the risky parts of Credit Suisse, and they get to keep the highly profitable Swiss domestic unit in…

European economy, In Europe 21st March 2023

Bundesbank: technical recession unavoidable for Germany in 1Q23 but decline could be less than 4Q22’s 0.4%

Link Securities | Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, as reflected in its Monthly Bulletin, expects Germany’s Gross Domestic Product to contract in 1Q2023 relative to the previous quarter. The Bundesbank believes that the productivity of the German economy could fall again in 1Q2023, albeit less sharply than in the previous quarter. According to the bulletin, the German economy recovered at the beginning of 2023 only with difficulty from the sharp…

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European economy 20th March 2023

ECB to help banking sector, if needed, but considers it strong

Bankinter : The ECB raises the reference rates +50 b.p.: Deposit: +3.00%, Director +3.50% and Credit Marginal +3.75%. In line with what the ECB anticipated in February. However, it does not comment on future steps. It revises its inflation forecasts downwards, to +5.3% in 2023 (vs +6.3% previously estimated), +2.9% in 2024 (vs +3.4% previously) and +2.1% in 2025 (vs +2.3% previously). In her subsequent appearance, Lagarde says that upcoming…

European economy, Relevant News Item 20th March 2023

Eurozone inflation in February confirmed at 8.5%, but underlying climbs to record 5.6%, ECB says it will remain above 2% until 2025

The eurozone’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 8.5% in February, down one tenth of a percentage point from January, according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, while the underlying rate, which excludes the effect of energy and food, climbed to a record 5.6%. In this way, the year-on-year inflation rate in the euro area accumulates four consecutive months of deceleration and stood at its lowest level since May 2022, before…

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