Portocolom AV | The US index of leading indicators, which hit a new low on Monday 23rd, seems to indicate that the US economy will enter recession in 2023. This indicator, which includes key economic data with the aim of predicting the rate of growth, has historically had a very high success rate in anticipating recessions. This has been the case in previous crises, such as the Covid-19 crisis, the…
Santander Corporate & Research | The worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years, since the 2021 confinements, puts a clear question mark over the sustainability of an expected EZ economic recovery that explains the good momentum in credit markets. True, with these PMIs already above 50pt for the first time since June and the third consecutive month of improvement, our economists believe that the EZ may be able…
Ifo | This is due to considerably less pessimistic expectations. However, companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current situation. The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence. In the manufacturing sector, the index continued its upward trajectory. Companies assessed their current situation as better. Their expectations for the next six months are also noticeably better. The volume of orders is decreasing but remains at a high…
CdM: This is what the PMI index data released on Tuesday by S&P Global shows. “Eurozone business activity increased slightly in the first month of 2023, signalling a hesitant return to growth after six consecutive months of decline.” Specifically, the Flash Eurozone Total Activity Composite PMI Index came in at 50.2 (49.3 in December), registering a seven-month high. This figure indicates “the first – albeit only modest – expansion in…
Link Securities | European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that “staying the course” is her mantra on monetary policy and urged central banks around the world to do the same to achieve output recovery. Lagarde described 2022 as “a strange, strange year” as the low growth figures seen in the world’s largest economies were “not usual”. However, she expressed hope that “cooperatives, consumers, and state policymakers…
Morgan Stanley| According to a Bloomberg report, the German chancellor and his party will ask the EU to create a joint financing system to help compete against green energy subsidies in the US. The article also referred to increased subsidies for batteries, green hydrogen, and increased deployment of clean/green technologies. A positive market reaction is expected, especially from stocks benefiting from a European version of the Inflation Reduction Act to…
Banca March| This week sees Europe cross the halfway point of the winter season with reserves at 81%, well above the usual average for this time of year, favoured by temperatures in December and half of January that have been unusually high for the winter season. In northern Europe, for example, average temperatures at the end of the year were up to eight degrees higher than the average over the…
F. Rodríguez | The European Securities and Markets Authority, (ESMA), has presented the broad outlines of its strategy for the period 2023-2028, which will have three priorities: “promoting the efficiency and stability of EU markets”, “strengthening retail investor protection” and achieving these two objectives by “reinforcing supervision”. Sustainability and innovation in technology and data processing will be the two “key drivers” in the functioning of the organisation. As part of…
CoM| Germany’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 8.6% last December, the lowest since August 2022, after the 10% recorded in November, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), which estimates a price rise of 7.9% for 2022 as a whole, compared with 3.1% in 2021.In harmonised figures, used by Eurostat in its statistics, Germany’s inflation rate in December was 9.6% year-on-year, which put the average for 2022 as a whole…
Intermoney| Despite central bank messages, the news that moved the bond market on Tuesday was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s request to the European Union to create joint financing instruments to counter the US green plan. Bond yields fell as investors reduced bets on the scale of monetary tightening and positioned themselves for more fiscal burden-sharing in the bloc. A slower pace of tightening is good news for Italian bonds, as…