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European economy 28th May 2024

Concerns about wage growth to make ECB more cautious

Martin Wolburg (Generali AM) | Markets remain concerned in the home stretch of the fight against inflation that central banks should only reluctantly ease rates. Recently, ECB Governing Council members such as Schnabel and de Guindos warned about wage growth developments as an upside risk to inflation. Last week, German official wage data for the first quarter (+6.2% year-on-year) pointed in that direction and, at the eurozone level, negotiated first…

European economy 27th May 2024

EU car registrations up 13.7% year-on-year in April vs. 5.2% drop in March

Link Securities | The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) yesterday reported that European Union (EU) passenger car registrations rose 13.7% year-on-year in April (-5.2% in March) to 914,000 units, driven by solid increases in all major markets. Sales in most EU markets recorded gains, including Spain (23.1%), Germany (19.8%), France (10.9%) and Italy (7.7%). In turn, electric car registrations in the EU grew by 14.8% to 108,500 units and their…

European economy 24th May 2024

Eurozone economic recovery accelerates: new orders rise at fastest pace in more than a year

CdM | The economic recovery in the eurozone gained momentum in May. “It seems that the results could not have been better”. The PMI index “reveals that the euro area economy is strengthening further”. Indeed, the pace of expansion was solid, accelerating for the second month in a row to the fastest in twelve months. The overall expansion was again driven by the services sector, with business activity increasing for…

European economy 23rd May 2024

ESMA publishes 20 recommendations to boost European markets

Emisores | The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s financial markets regulator and supervisor, has published the position paper Building more efficient and attractive capital markets in the EU, which includes 20 recommendations to “strengthen EU capital markets and address the needs of European citizens and businesses.” ESMA’s recommendations for a well-functioning capital market focus on three dimensions: citizens, businesses and the EU regulatory and supervisory framework. According…

European economy 23rd May 2024

UK headline inflation in April down to 2.3% vs. 3.2% in March, core down to 3.9% vs. 4.2% in March

Bankinter : UK inflation slows sharply in April, although it came out slightly higher than expected – CPI (April): +2.3% year-on-year versus +2.1% expected and +3.2% previously. Underlying: +3.9% vs +3.6% expected and +4.2% previously. Assessment: Despite disappointing expectations, the deceleration is significant and this is good news on the UK inflation side. The price level decelerates for the second consecutive month, after stagnating at +4.0% at the beginning of…

European economy 22nd May 2024

ArcelorMittal receives €250m loan from Flemish regional government for decarbonisation plan of Ghent plant

Morgan Stanley | Analysts are echoing a Bloomberg report, confirming that Arcelor has received a €250m loan from the Flemish regional government to implement a decarbonisation plan for its plant in Ghent, Belgium. This is in addition to the €350m already granted, for a total loan of €600m, and the €280m in aid it received from the Belgian government. Our analyst Alain Gabriel thus maintains his positive view of Arcelor’s…

European economy 22nd May 2024

ArcelorMittal among best positioned steelmakers in face of possible 10% reduction in steel plate production capacity in Europe

Morgan Stanley: Our analyst Alain Gabriel believes that steel plate production in Europe is set to fall by 10% in the short/medium term, due to increased financing pressure, decarbonisation policies and sanctions imposed on Russian imports. Returns for the sector in Europe have been lower (4.3% post-tax RoCE 2009-20) than expected over the last 10 years and Gabriel believes this has to do with a utilisation rate below potential. The…

European economy 21st May 2024

Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- and outlook “Stable”, while Moody’s keeps Portugal’s rating and outlook at A3 “Stable”

Bankinter | Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- and the outlook “Stable”, given the resilience of the economy and the improvement in the labour market. Fitch estimates GDP growth of 2.1% and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025 respectively. Moreover, the credit rating agency points to the need to address the high structural unemployment rate. No surprises for our analysts: “Fitch maintains its credit rating one notch below S&P’s equivalent at…

European economy 21st May 2024

Ryanair makes €1.92 billion profit, up 34% on previous year, thanks largely to 9% increase in traffic

Singular Bank | The Irish low-cost airline has released its business results. In its 2024 financial year, Ryanair posted a net profit of €1.92 billion, up 34% on the previous year, thanks largely to a 9% increase in traffic. As a result, the number of passengers exceeded 184 million, 23% more than before the pandemic. Despite higher oil prices, the airline drove cost reductions in other areas, which helped boost…

European economy 20th May 2024

UK Competition Authority to conduct formal investigation into Acerinox’s acquisition of Haynes International

Morgan Stanley | Haynes International has indicated that the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) will conduct a formal investigation into the transaction. Haynes remains optimistic that the pending reviews will be resolved positively and that the necessary approvals will be obtained. In fact, the company expects the transaction to close by the end of the year (as opposed to the previous Q3 expectation). Acerinox, for its part, has not…

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