Latin American investment abroad reached 38,255 million dollars in 2018, an amount similar to that of the previous three years. The main investors were Brazil and Mexico, and to a lesser extent Colombia and Uruguay. Latin American Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Spain amounts to 40,517 million euros, which represents an increase of 200%, in the last ten years.
A retail central bank digital currency (“CBDC”) could be a major concern for European commercial banks. Recent central bank commentary suggests to Bank of America Global Researh that the likelihood of a CBDC being launched is increasing. This year, the ECB has published a position paper on a retail digital currency, and the BIS has announced a group of six central banks will study the topic. Analysts at BofA have three key concerns about this.
This article focuses on the 2020 US Election, which formally kicks off next week with the February 3 Iowa Caucuses. In this piece, experts at BNY Mellon Daniel Tenengauzer and John Velis explore how markets may react as political events unfold in the run-up to November 3.
Most economists were probably expecting a fairly easy ride at the beginning of 2020. However, unforeseen exogenous events such as the outbreak of China coronavirus are standing in the way, generating a high level of uncertainty. In the opinion of Gilles Moëc , Chief Economist at AXA IM, that now ” economic policy could be on autopilot is not very consensual”.
via The Conversation | After a pause of a few months, the world’s leading central banks are “printing” money again to try to bolster their economies. Commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) resumed its programme just before the turn of the year. The backdrop is lukewarm growth, a looming recession in Germany, and persistent fears of Japanese-style deflation.
These growth forecasts are dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).
Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Take a fun look at a wonderful display of the “strong men” frenemy macho state leaders that dominate the world of today in what might be its last decades.
Aidan Yao (AXA) | A sudden rise in tensions has cast a dark shadow over Sino-US relations. While the trade war has been the most eye-catching instance, increased “decoupling” has also occurred in areas of technology, investment and social exchanges as the two countries have put up “walls” against one another. But every cloud has a silver lining.
David Kohl (Julius Baer) | The signing of the phase one of the trade deal between the US and China this week would confirm the easing of trade-related growth headwinds in 2020. Persisting geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, as well as ambitious import targets for US goods, prevents the trade agreement from boosting business sentiment significantly.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The financial markets are signalling that the situation in the Middle East won’t get out of hand, but US-Iran friction could continue for some time. The defence industry and oil and gas-related sectors could remain well-supported, but overall we believe investors should be cautious yet patient. Look to higher-quality stocks with lower correlations to the broader market and “hunt for income” if headline volatility is a risk you wish to avoid.