Peng Qinqing and Han Wei via Caixin|In a rare move, China’s foreign exchange regulator named nine banks for violations of foreign exchange regulations amid continued efforts to clamp down capital outflows.
Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) | Most analysts and economists believe global growth will remain solid, despite political and geopolitical uncertainties, in the second half of 2017. Economics and corporate earnings will be the main drivers for the markets.
Kommer van Trigt (Robeco) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months there will be more certainty surrounding the central banks’ normalisation strategy. In its quarterly outlook, Robeco’s Global Fixed Income Macro team says it makes sense for the central banks to begin to normalise their policies.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months we will see greater certainty in monetary normalisation strategy. The start of the Fed’s balance sheet adjustment can also provide the rest of the central banks with information on the reversion of quantitative measures.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | Brexit and Trump may have made Europeans realize bad things can happen — and shocked them out of their complacency.
via Atlantic Sentinel | The 2016 election was a turning point in American history. Cultural, political and regional differences have become so vast that the American political system is becoming unsustainable.
This month is the 20th anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Over these two decades, Asian economies have changed a lot: in 1997, Chinese GDP was around $780bn, about the same size as Switzerland. Last year, the Chinese economy grew by more than that amount.
Global growth is speeding with a forecast of 3.6% by 2018, basically due to 4.8% expansion of emerging markets, since developed countries continue languishing with a rise of 1.9% inadequate to solve their social and economic problems.
The Fed signed five major swap arrangements with allied central banks that totaled more than $580 billion in 2008, whereas the People’s Bank of China signed more than 30 bilateral currency swap agreements valued at $490 billion in year 2017.
While stability of global liquidity is key to growth for both emerging and developed markets, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) changed the role and influence of its key drivers. A paper by Bank of International Settlements’ Stefan Avdjiev, Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda S. Goldberg and Stefano Schiaffi, defines the main components of global liquidity as cross-border bank loans and international bond issuance, distinguishing also between local (pull) and global (push) factors. AXA IM experts have summarised this work.