Ofelia Marín-Lozano | As inflation increases, the TIPS (treasury inflaction protected securities) are the asset which offer the best peformance, ahead of commodities and equities (….)much better than traditional bonds in the case of rising inflation, very similar in the case of a decline in activity and worse in the case of falling inflation.
Chinese investors want to make money and insist on having good information. Data applications are appearing on demand and there is a record level of collaboration on information amongst big businessmen.
With his policies, particularly protectionism, Trump is about to throw the US’ world leadership in the bin. He sold an illusion to his voters since the industrial jobs which disappeared with globalisation and technology will not return. What is clear is that the consequences will hurt us all.
This year may be remembered as either the beginning or the end of the golden age of billionaires. One has miraculously become president of the United States. According to Oxfam, the eight richest billionaires in the world hold as much wealth as the poorer half of humanity. One of those eight, Warren Buffett, has recently been canonized in a rather hagiographic HBO documentary that retraces Buffett’s career.
Hu Shuli via Caixin | It has been six years since China adopted what has been tagged “a prudent monetary policy stance” in 2011. In practice, policies have been slightly eased to alleviate pressure from a slowing economy and rein in financial market fluctuations.
Xavier Colás | Russia is hoping that in 2017 its economic indicators will look brighter again after three years of questions over the country’s economic health due to sanctions, rock-bottom oil prices and a rouble which has lost half of its value.
Francesco Saraceno | Munchau recently argued that central banks’ choices are increasingly political in nature, especially if their mandate is broad, as is the case for example of the Fed. His argument is that a broad mandate implies tradeoffs, and as such it does not go well with central bank independence.
The price-inventory apparent mismatch of crude oil matters to the extent that going long crude appears to be a crowded trade so that the risks are on the downside if it were to happen that the “confirmed” cuts have been more paper ones than real ones.
John Bruton | The transformation of China is the most important global economic story of the past 40 years. It has changed the balance of power on the Eurasian landmass, in ways we are only beginning to comprehend.
Behavioural finance theory tells us that markets are susceptible to short term emotional moves and politics can be part of that. For example, the current narrative of isolationism and tariff barriers impacting EM exporters as strategists and analysts try and pull out economic effects from the potential policies of the new US administration.