The price-inventory apparent mismatch of crude oil matters to the extent that going long crude appears to be a crowded trade so that the risks are on the downside if it were to happen that the “confirmed” cuts have been more paper ones than real ones.
John Bruton | The transformation of China is the most important global economic story of the past 40 years. It has changed the balance of power on the Eurasian landmass, in ways we are only beginning to comprehend.
Behavioural finance theory tells us that markets are susceptible to short term emotional moves and politics can be part of that. For example, the current narrative of isolationism and tariff barriers impacting EM exporters as strategists and analysts try and pull out economic effects from the potential policies of the new US administration.
The wall with Mexico, which the crazy US President Donald Trump had ordered to be built and financed by imposing a 20% tariff on Mexican imports, will end up being paid for by the Americans – although the impact for Mexico will be far from negligible.
Mexico seems to be one of the countries most threatened by Trump’s protectionism plans. The prospects, however, for Mexican companies are better than many investors fear.
On Thursday, ex-President of the ECB, Jean Claude Trichet warned that the political and economic authorities would have little room to manoeuvre in the face of a new crisis after the central banks exhaust their QE.
In the two and a half weeks since his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has rattled the world with a series of controversial policies. Trump has moved quickly to turn many of his campaign promises into practice, disappointing expectations that he would soften his positions on many controversial issues after taking office.
Maria Fernando Tapia Cortés | Donald Trump has already built barriers around his relationship with Mexico that are higher than any wall. The diplomatic slip in the form of a tweet that ended with President Enrique Peña Nieto canceling their meeting was apparently fixed after the phone call between the two presidents held on January 27, in which they agreed to not talk publicly of the wall and expressed their desire to keep cooperating on issues like security.
The so called Trump trades, and particularly the long USD trade, have seen a correction this year. Indeed, it started after President Trump’s first press conference after the elections, on 11 January, where he used strong rhetoric against US companies that invest abroad and then export to the US. BoAML believes that the market is still pricing a benign scenario, in which the new US administration delivers fiscal stimulus and deregulation, but does not go ahead with trade protection. F
The 2014 -15 oil price crash led to sharp pullbacks in upstream capex, leading to the “conventional wisdom” (as held by the IEA, EIA, and OPEC Secretariat) that a supply gap will open up by the end of the decade due to limited greenfield projects and accelerating decline rates… but Citi’s analysts disagree with this consensus.