ifo | The amount of time full-time employees work from home in Germany has leveled off at an average of 1.4 days per week since the pandemic – compared to 1.3 days in neighboring France, 1.6 days in the US, and 1.1 days in Japan. This means that Covid-19 has had a severe and lasting effect on working conditions. That is the finding of a comparative study of 27 countries…
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | About 700 small steel mills, with 140 million tons of steel capacity deemed sub-standard, have shut down since 2016. Another 150 million tons of inefficient capacity at larger firms has also gone. However, steel production continues to climb, outpacing demand
Christian Nolting (Deutsche Bank) | The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries peaked in mid-June, then fell sharply in July before rising again in August. The decline for Treasuries with shorter maturities was less pronounced in July, causing the yield curve to invert, which many investors regard as a precursor to recession. We forecast that the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession in H1 2023. Whereas growth concerns have been…
Santander : Record primary issuance in August (€60 billion), 43% higher than the previous record in 2018, which is starting to drag down secondary issuance, also affected by attractive NIPs. In fact, €22.5bn was issued on Tuesday and Wednesday alone in what is set to be the highest volume in a week since May. The fear of more frontloading, even in less stable markets, is also a matter of concern…
Morgan Stanley | In reality, during H1 2022 the market was already discounting the FED and the toughening of financial conditions. So we do not see the FED as an additional risk: the biggest risk we see is the declines in future profits. In this respect, our advance profits’ model projects a significant drop in EPS growth over the coming months. A key input in this model is the ISM…
Hans-Jörg Naumer (Allianz Global Investors) | We still believe it’s quite likely that the world economy continues to grow, albeit weakly. However, in the second half of 2022, the risks of a slowdown in the short-term have substantially increased. A continued heightening of geopolitical crises and the consequent rise in the prices of energy and food, could cause a sharp decline in the European economy, already in difficulty, and even in the…
IFO Insitute | The assessment of the political situation improved worldwide in the second quarter of 2022 according to the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the IFO Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,795 participants from 127 countries. At plus 10 points, they assessed political stability worldwide as significantly better than in the previous quarter. “Despite energy…
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | In his second term, President Joko Widodo has continued to tackle economic reforms, such as infrastructure improvement to support the manufacturing sector and digital economy, reforms of the labour market and foreign investment rules. However, some key elements of his policy agenda remain contested due to vested interests. While Widodo has broad support in the House of Representatives, the wide range of political groups in…
Renta 4 | Germany and Canada are negotiating an investment of 2 billion euros in the Saint John LNG regasification plant, owned by Repsol. The aim is to be able to export gas to Europe to reduce dependence on Russia, according to press reports. The Canadian Environment Minister has indicated that Repsol’s plant would be the one which could most quickly make the deployment, as it already has the infrastructure…
IFO Institute | For many key technologies, such as battery technology, robotics, and renewables, Germany is dependent on imports of raw materials – often from individual supplier countries like China. “Urgent action is required to ensure that the supply chains for nine critical minerals – cobalt, boron, silicon, graphite, magnesium, lithium, niobium, rare earths, titanium – are crisis-proof. Additional sources of supply are needed to make the supply chains more…