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World economy

Mexico-USA relations

World economy 7th February 2017

Are Mexico and America Heading for a Breakup?

Maria Fernando Tapia Cortés | Donald Trump has already built barriers around his relationship with Mexico that are higher than any wall. The diplomatic slip in the form of a tweet that ended with President Enrique Peña Nieto canceling their meeting was apparently fixed after the phone call between the two presidents held on January 27, in which they agreed to not talk publicly of the wall and expressed their desire to keep cooperating on issues like security.

US soft a and hard data

World economy 6th February 2017

Playing With Fire: The FX Implications Of US Trade Protection

The so called Trump trades, and particularly the long USD trade, have seen a correction this year. Indeed, it started after President Trump’s first press conference after the elections, on 11 January, where he used strong rhetoric against US companies that invest abroad and then export to the US. BoAML believes that the market is still pricing a benign scenario, in which the new US administration delivers fiscal stimulus and deregulation, but does not go ahead with trade protection. F

energy unconventional sources

Markets, World economy 5th February 2017

Energy 2022: Return of the Unconventionals

The 2014 -15 oil price crash led to sharp pullbacks in upstream capex, leading to the “conventional wisdom” (as held by the IEA, EIA, and OPEC Secretariat) that a supply gap will open up by the end of the decade due to limited greenfield projects and accelerating decline rates… but Citi’s analysts disagree with this consensus.

markets

Markets, World economy 1st February 2017

The Pending Issue Of Fintech Regulation: A Risk Or A Benefit For The Banks?

José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Without doubt, banks can benefit in the medium and long-term from those companies which the term “fintech” encompasses. And competition in the short-term, particularly in the segments of payments and loans, is a small price to pay considering the synergies and the revitalising effect for the banks of being digitally closer to the client.

world trade

World economy 1st February 2017

Pick Only The Weak Trade Balances, Easy Like Sunday Morning

Issuing decrees is the new tweeting. So far Trump’s pattern has been clear: focus on easy targets first using a very simple rule of thumb: use the trade balance to tell apart US friends from US foes. Hence despite the outcry, the economy and markets are gaining traction.

Asian markets

Markets, World economy 31st January 2017

Asian Markets: Trump Matters For North, Fed For South

Assuming that Trump’s getting US presidency has turned global establishment upside down, markets are under currents of diverging US, but not leaving aside domestic factors. In the case of Asian, on one hand, the likelihood of stronger US data leading to higher USD rates is pulling Asia rates higher, as reported by BoAML. On the other hand, flush local liquidity conditions, lackluster pick up in domestic demand and easing stance of Asian central banks are pushing Asian rates lower.

Emerging markets

World economy 24th January 2017

Emerging Markets Shielded With Capital Inflows In 2017

Emerging Markets capital inflows are slowing down only modestly, offering some protection in case of large outflows. Capital inflows to EMs are expected to slow down in 2017, although Manolis Davradakis at AXA IM does not believe they would fall off a cliff as in 2013-2015.