There is a statistic link between profits and investment, in the US, so a drop in the former determines a recession in the following quarter. But the Trump effect is likely to mean another imminent recession will have to wait.
The date for the Confederation of African States and monetary union is set for May 2063, when the African Union commemorates the centenary of its foundation as Organisation of African Unity (OAU). Gold Mandela has been chosen as a possible name for the African single currency.
BoAML | We look for another year of muddling through, with a slight pick-up in global economics growth and a normal risk of recession.Aggregate demand is starting to outstrip feeble aggregate supply: look for a modest pick-up in global core inflation. The main risk to global growth comes from US: a big fiscal push could cause the economy to overheat.
UBS | As attention turns towards fiscal stimulus as a means to drive global growth, infrastructure investment is considered a politically feasible way to justify government spending. Despite increased focus, however, deploying additional meaningful funds for infrastructure spending is never easy. The US infrastructure, for instance, has received intermittent attention over the last several years.
The Fed has increased its daily interest rate to 0.75%, saying it predicts three further hikes in 2017. This is called active and persuasive monetary policy. But the central banks are no longer the masters of the economy, whipping it into a place they want.
UBS | After Outlook conferences in 8 countries, we highlight that 2017 is expected be the first time in 7 years that global nominal GDP growth accelerates.
China is already the top lender in Latin America, while Spain is the second biggest investor in the region after the US. But joint projects there are scarce.
BoAML | One of the most popular ideas in emerging markets economics is grouping Brazil, Russia, India and China together. Here we argue that grouping these very different economies together for economic forecasting was never very useful in the first place. The only thing they have in common is size. The recent divergence in the group makes it even less useful.
Trump and the republicans are already considering a fiscal amnesty which would repatriate – with a tax rate of 10% – the 2.5 billion dollars US companies have outside the country.
Of all the arguments I have heard against monetary normalisation, I would definitely highlight the potential destablising effect which it could have on some financial markets. And I am not emphasising this in a positive way: I sincerely believe that delaying a decision which can help reduce uncertainty in the medium and long-term to avoid a negative impact (which I think will be limited) in the short-term is, without any doubt, questionable.