AXA IM | Mexico, together with China, appears to be the country most exposed to Trump’s economic policy given its vicinity and close trade relations with the US. The Mexican peso has depreciated by 10% relative to its pre-election day closing level, the stock market is down 6% and the local currency sovereign 10-year rate has shot up by 112bps.
Joachim Koops | November 9, 2016, could become an American, transatlantic and global “Day of Fate” of another kind. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America is feared by some as leading to a US exit from liberal order.
In the United States, there is absolutely no discussion about the independent nature of organisms like Florida’s State Board of Administration – SBA. In fact, its director Ash Williams defends an increase in public spending, which is anathema to the Republicans with the exception of President-elect Donald Trump. He also affirms the US and many other industrialised economies need a responsible fiscal policy.
It is too early to guess what kind of economic policy the Trump administration may deliver. The markets are crossing their fingers and praying the President-elect will ultimately hand over matters to an experienced team.
John Bruton | Donald Trump was much more eloquent than his rival, Hillary Clinton. He came across as comfortable with himself, whereas Clinton appeared anxious at times. He felt he could allow himself to be spontaneous, whereas she did not. Trump has raised so many expectations that it may be impossible for him to live up to them.
Francesco Saraceno | Trump is not the John Maynard Keynes of 2016. His agenda is, broadly speaking, an agenda of deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, and retreat of the State from the economy. Not to mention the strong chance of a more hawkish Fed in the future. To sum up, Trump is, in the best case scenario a new Reagan.
Trump’s victory has been yet another nail in the coffin of the breed which has ruled the world for decades. This bipartisan group exists in every country, but is well connected via the G-7 and the G-20, as well of course by the EU and the collateral networks of the World Bank and AMC.
BoAML | Council member Nowotny stated on 9 November that “how the Fed reacts” will be “key”. Unfortunately, the ECB will meet before the FOMC, on 8 December. The ECB will need to rely on its own and the market’s expectations of the Fed.
A real estate tycoon and reality showman will head the world’s most powerful nation, winning an astonishing victory grounded on outright lies and a shallow promise to make America great. His roguish conduct, threats and abuse towards Hillary Clinton, migrants, women, disabled persons and servicemen killed in action, did not deter voters from supporting him.
Francesco Saraceno | Is the last BoJ move a serious risk to blow credibility. If it failed to lift the inflation to the 2% target, how can it be credibly believed to overshoot it? Credibility was associated in the past three decades to changing incentives over time, and invoked to recommend rules over discretion. Today, eight years into the zero lower bound, we go back to a more intuitive definition of credibility: announcing an objective and not being able to attain it.