World economy




petroleo barrilesTC

OPEC’s Ground Hog Day

Julius Baer Research| As speculation swirls ahead of next month’s informal oil producer meeting, it feels like ground hog day in the oil market. With prices diving into the lower 40s per barrel, talks about supply cuts from oil cartel’s members, OPEC, have resurfaced. We see the chances of any action as exceptionally slim.


asia-china

Asia investment strategy for H2: impact of Brexit

Mark McFarland (UBP) | Brexit has had a cathartic effect which is likely to continue for a long time. Although Asia as a whole does not have very close links to the UK, the Asian markets are very sensitive to global growth, investment flows and interest rates in US dollars. What happens next in Europe will be crucial for Asia in the next few months.


Investment

Weak Investment in the US

There are a lot of indicators which basically show that the US economy is strong, but it’s a “weak” strength, since it has been unable to maintain average growth of 2%. A weakness I see in the US economy is investment: in the second quarter it declined, which is not a sign of strength.


distributionTC

Growth versus distribution

Why should we fuel growth? Is this the only economic goal? Wouldn’t it be fairer to boost distribution? Larry Summers says there are almost always “trade-offs” in economy, but not as far as this is concerned. Growth is the best social policy.


thinker

Central banks should reflect on monetary policy

J. L. Martínez Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The BoJ has begun a period of reflection to try to answer the question of why expansionary monetary measures are not being reflected in higher inflation. I honestly believe that this is a reflection which other central banks should undertake. But, in the end, the easiest thing will always be to continue with more measures without a clear strategy of what their final objectives are.


Sub-zero returns

Financial repression

Why are interest rates so low? We have explained that the reason is the weak credit situation for financing investment.


BankofEngland

BoJ, ECB and now BoE: anything is possible with economic policy

Fidelity | In line with expectations, the Bank of England’s monetary policy committe voted unanimously to cut interest rates – for the first time since 2009 – by 0.25%. It also  announced a package of additional measures, such as an extension of the current quantative easing programme (including corporate bond purchases) and a new liquidity line (Term Funding Scheme).